330
FXUS63 KLMK 221952
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
352 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) ISSUED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS.
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
STORM CHANCE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, SUNNY SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MOST OBS IN THE MID 80S AS OF 19Z.
BREEZY SW WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED IN LATEST OBS, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH PRESENT. SDF ACARS SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WELL-MIXED LAYER BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 875 MB, WITH AN
INVERSION AROUND 850 MB AND AN EML EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID-
TROPOSPHERE.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING OUR CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS THIS
EVENING AND COOLER AIR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. SO FAR TODAY, THIS FROPA
HAS BEEN DRY ACROSS INDIANA AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED THANKS
TO RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE/VORT LOBE IS EXPECTED TO
SWING ACROSS THE MIDWEST, AND THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS COMBINATION OF
BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD HELP CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONT, WITH MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWING STORMS FIRING OVER
CENTRAL IN AROUND SUNSET. THESE STORMS SHOULD APPROACH OUR SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY COUNTIES BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT.
AS FAR AS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR AREA IS CONCERNED, THERE
ARE A COUPLE LIMITING FACTORS WHICH MAKES SEVERE WEATHER A
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. FIRST OFF, YOU HAVE
THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRONG CAPPING WHICH WILL REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF FORCING FROM THE FRONT TO INITIATE CONVECTION.
SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION NOT FIRING UNTIL
BEHIND THE FRONT, ALLOWING A COOL AND STABLE AIR MASS TO UNDERCUT
STORMS, ELIMINATING THE TORNADO THREAT AND REDUCING THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. SECOND, WHILE STORMS WILL INITIALLY HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE), THE LATER INTO
THE EVENING WE GO, THIS INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH, LEADING TO LESS
ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE MOST FAVORABLE IN OUR AREA NORTH
OF I-64, WITH MANY AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KY UNLIKELY TO RECEIVE
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL, LET ALONE SEVERE STORMS.
THE ONE SCENARIO WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
WOULD BE ONE LIKE THE 12Z NAM-3KM IN WHICH CONVECTION IS ROOTED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE FRONT. IN THIS CASE, STORMS COULD INTERACT WITH
A WELL-MIXED/HIGHER DCAPE ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOP A STRONG COLD
POOL, INCREASING THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. OVERALL, IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR TONIGHT, WITH
HAIL BEING FAVORED INITIALLY AS CONVECTIVE CORES REMAIN DISCRETE AND
DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING DOMINANT IF ANY STRONG OUTFLOW/COLD POOLS
CAN DEVELOP. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF TONIGHT'S STORMS,
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 0.50" AND ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING.
OUTSIDE OF THE STORM THREAT, WINDS WILL VEER SHARPLY FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY ACROSS THE FRONT, ALLOWING STRONG CAA TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. WHERE THERE IS MORE RESIDENCE
TIME TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN CWA, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
ACROSS SOUTHERN KY, LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.
TOMORROW MORNING, WE SHOULD START OUT WITH A TYPICAL POST-FRONTAL
LOW STRATUS LAYER OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THOUGH THIS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20 MPH EXPECTED.
HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 25-30 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW, RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ON TUESDAY, SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US BEGINS TO BROADEN OUT AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY, COLD ADVECTION WILL SUBSIDE, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO WARM, A TREND WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE EAST FOR RETURN FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO TAKE A BIG
STEP UPWARD ON WEDNESDAY THANKS IN PART TO WARM ADVECTION, WITH
HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S AND LOW-TO-MID 70S.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW KEEPS THINGS DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE BROADER NW FLOW
PATTERN. THIS SHOULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE REGION,
ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE THIS RAIN SETS UP IS STILL UNCERTAIN, SO
FORECAST POPS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.
THURSDAY - NEXT WEEKEND...
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WHICH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLEX EASTWARD AGAIN
ON THURSDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS SHOULD HELP STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
FAVORED TO REACH THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS EVEN A 10-15%
CHANCE (PER NBM PROBABILITIES) OF REACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO SINK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND
IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLES DEPICTING COLD
FROPA ANYWHERE FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
FRONT PASSES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT. AI/ML SEVERE CONVECTION GUIDANCE STILL FEATURES MODEST
PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG STORMS WITH THIS COLD FROPA, AND GIVEN THE
"GLANCING BLOW" THAT THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT/GREATER HEIGHT FALLS
WILL DELIVER, IT IS NOT A CLEAR CUT SETUP FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE
APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SINK INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS FAVORED THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND FAVORED BY NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT TO OPERATIONS. THIS EVENING, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, BRINGING A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY AFFECT
SDF/LEX, AND POSSIBLY HNB/RGA. GUSTY NORTH/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS, AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE N/NW
BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT,
LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THE END OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ON MONDAY,
GENERALLY REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER 14Z MONDAY, THOUGH HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS SCATTERS OUT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...CSG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page