509
FXUS63 KLMK 230836
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
436 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE 30 TO 40 DEGREES COLDER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S. GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH.
* GRADUAL WARM-UP WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK.
* WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
STORM CHANCE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
SFC COLD FRONT IS NEARLY THROUGH THE CWA AS EVIDENT BY OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE KY MESONET. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF KY TO THE UPPER
40S FOR SOUTHERN IN. THE 35 TO ALMOST 40 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE
WILL BE THE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM LESS THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. BY THE START OF THE DAY, THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SEEN ON
RADAR WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH LINGERING LOW STRATUS FOR THE
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY AND WHEN YOU FACTOR IN
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH, AT TIMES IT WILL FEEL RATHER BLUSTERY. STRONG
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST HELPING TO ADVECT IN COLD AIR, SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
LATER WITH MORE SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON. AFTER FALLING INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BUT A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASED HIGHER CLOUDS TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE CHILLY AS MORNING LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S WITH
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
THE STRONG AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS WILL KEEP
US MOSTLY DRY AND AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY WEDNESDAY, WE WILL START TO SEE OUT TEMPERATURES WARM EACH DAY
UNTIL WE RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S BY THURSDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BY
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING IN
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WORKS A WEAK SFC SYSTEM OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LIFTING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. COULD SEE LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS WOULD ONCE AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THEN COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND HAS HAD A HISTORY OF GUST OF 25-35KTS. AS
THE BOUNDARY PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH, LAGGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LOCATED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND HAVE
BEEN WEAKENING. TO THE NORTH, OBSERVATION ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
SHOWS LOW IFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL IN. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
BREEZY AND GUSTY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, OUR TYPICAL POST
FRONTAL LOW STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT AND CHALLENGE AT THE
START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE GUIDANCE WAS NOT HANDLING THIS
WELL, I WENT AHEAD AND TOOK SDF/LEX DOWN TO IFR FOR A PERIOD. THIS
WAS BASED ON CURRENT OBS TO OUR NORTH AND EXTRAPOLATING DATA TO GET
THIS FORECAST. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME IFR,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON JUST HOW LONG WE EXPERIENCE IT.
ONCE THE DRIER COOLER AIR WORKS IN AND HELPS TO MIX OUT THE LOW
STRATUS BY MID/LATE MORNING WE WILL RETURN TO VFR AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
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