027
FXUS63 KLMK 231927
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY WINDS FROM THE NORTH GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
CHILLY TONIGHT, WITH TUESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
* GRADUAL WARM-UP WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. WARMER ON THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
80S.
* SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT
ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON,
AND 10-20 MPH BREEZES FROM THE NORTH CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER,
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS MORNING'S STRATUS LAYER HAS MIXED
OUT, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN
IN. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTH OF I-
64 AND UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN SOUTHERN KY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ESE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT AS
THEY VEER EASTERLY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT,
WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM THE WNW. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS FOR LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES LOOK PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON TUESDAY, WITH
JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
TUESDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US
WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IT APPEARS A
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE MODEST WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
THE MEDIUM RANGE STARTS OFF WEDNESDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE STREAMING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WE'LL SEE INCREASING SW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND WAA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR
HIGHS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE LOWER OH VALLEY. A STRENGTHENING 35+ KT WSW LOW-LEVEL JET COULD
HELP SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS OCCURS AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
BY THURSDAY, THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST
AND MID-MS VALLEY. FORECAST MODELS SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FRONT, FROM MO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL IN AND WESTERN OH. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE, MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S THU AFTERNOON.
OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON FRIDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS
RESULTS IN A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO STABLE CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. MORNING LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. MANY AREAS COULD DIP BELOW
FREEZING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
LOW STRATUS HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED, AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
THROUGH 23Z THIS EVENING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE LIGHT WINDS
TO VEER EASTERLY. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ESE OVER THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
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