672
FXUS63 KLMK 241048
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
648 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 15-25% RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
* GRADUAL WARM-UP WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. VERY WARM ON THURSDAY, POSSIBLY 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S.
* SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT
ON FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING, WHICH IS USHERING IN LIGHT NE FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.
DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THIS MORNING, IT'S A
CHILLY START TODAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
COOLER TEMPS ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KY THIS
MORNING, WHICH IS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN LESS AND BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS TAKEN PLACE. WE'LL SEE THESE TEMPS COOL A
FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE, WITH SOME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS A STRONG INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE VERY DRY TODAY, ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 HPA. WITH DRY AIR MIX DOWN
LATER ON, SFC DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOW 20S. AS TEMPS PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 15-25% RANGE. THIS WILL
HELP DRY OUT FUELS, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY UNDER 15
MPH TODAY TO LIMIT ANY FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.
OUR GRADUAL WARM UP CONTINUES TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, AS WE
GET INTO A WAA PATTERN WITH RETURN FLOW AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
US.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
===== WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ====
A PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH GENERAL NW FLOW THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN US, WHICH WILL
KEEP A WAA PATTERN OF WARM RETURN FLOW THROUGH OUR AREA. AS A
RESULT, WE'LL SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD AND IN THE 50S.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE IN THE NW FLOW AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A ROUND OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BROAD
LIFT OVERSPREADS AN AREA OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
WE'LL SEE A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT,
POTENTIALLY TO 40-45KTS IN THE 850 HPA LAYER, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WE'LL BE STRONGLY CAPPED BY THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. STILL,
LOW-LEVEL JETTING OF THAT MAGNITUDE CAN OUTPUT SOME HIGH SHEAR
VALUES. HOWEVER, LIMITED INSTABILITY PROFILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO
MEAGER TO SUPPORT DEEPER CONVECTION BY THURSDAY MORNING, SO SPC HAS
KEPT THE GENERAL T-STORM RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK. POPS FOR THURSDAY MORNING ARE
AROUND 20-30% MAINLY NORTH OF THE WKY/BG PKWYS, WHICH IS ENOUGH TO
MENTION AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AFTER THE MORNING WAVE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR LATE MORNING AND ALL AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. THE GRADUAL
WARM-UP WILL CONTINUE, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK EXPECTED
AS WE REMAIN IN A STRONG WAA PATTERN WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SOME
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND POSSIBLY
CHALLENGING SOME DAILY MAXT RECORDS FOR MARCH 26.
===== HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY =====
WARM TEMPS WILL LINGER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN FRIDAY'S MAX TEMPS OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT OR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY MID-MORNING. THIS FROPA WILL BRING OUR HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH BROAD LIFT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT EXPANDING FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANOTHER MORNING OF MEAGER INSTABILITY AND STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAPPING, WHICH WILL KEEP SEVERE RISKS LOW.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH,
AND WE'LL SEE PRECIP GRADUALLY EXIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE FALLING IN THE POST-FRONTAL PATTERN, WITH TEMPS
IN THE LOW 50S BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND LOW 40S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
===== WEEKEND OUTLOOK =====
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL US FOR THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR A LARGE PART OF THE
COUNTRY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER FOR SATURDAY, WITH MORNING TEMPS
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL KY. WITH A COOL MORNING, TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO
ONLY REACH THE 50S, BUT WE'LL GRADUALLY WARM UP AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT 60S ON SUNDAY, AND 70S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING,
BUT WE CAN EXPECT SOME CLEARING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION
AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE REMAIN VFR THOUGH, WITH WINDS
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
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