594
FXUS63 KLMK 080524
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
124 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
COMMUNITIES NORTHEAST OF LEXINGTON WITH DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS
AS THE MAIN CONCERN.
* SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY WARM EVERYONE INTO THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
* SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH SCATTERED MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE
SURFACE, 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS PROVIDING
COOL AND DRY NE FLOW INTO THE REGION. WHERE MORE MIXING WAS ABLE TO
TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND SOUTHERN IN THIS
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S, WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS STILL ON THE ORDER OF 15-25
DEGREES. LIGHT NE WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH CONTINUE AT MORE WELL-MIXED
LOCATIONS, WITH LIGHTER WINDS OBSERVED IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. IT IS
BECAUSE OF THESE DRIER AND MORE MIXED CONDITIONS THAT WE DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IN SPITE OF TEMPERATURES
WHICH SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 30S IN MANY AREAS. SOME PATCHY
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH BETTER ACCESS TO NEAR-
SFC MOISTURE (E.G., NEAR BODIES OF WATER).
AS WE HEAD TOWARD SUNRISE TOMORROW, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS MAY TEMPER
COOLING SOMEWHAT, BUT STILL THINK WE WILL SEE MANY TEMP OBS IN THE
LOW-TO-MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE HREF PROBABILITIES OF
FALLING TO OR BELOW FREEZING EXCEED 50% BACK TO AROUND THE KENTUCKY
RIVER, AS A RESULT OF COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND
CONCERNS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE, IT WAS
DECIDED TO LEAVE THE FREEZE WARNING AREA WITHOUT CHANGES. THIS
HIGHLIGHTS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING. UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER, WITH WARMER MID 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH OF THE
BLUEGRASS. A BAND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS. A MODERATELY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH WILL DRIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT, INDUCING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
BRING IN DRIER COOLER AIR TO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS MOST LIKELY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S (>90% CHANCE).
AT THE SAME TIME, SOME WAA ALOFT AND AT MID LEVELS MAY BRING IN SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE EARLY MORNING. COMBINED WITH VERY LOW RH
VALUES, FROST IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE CWA THOUGH SOME NORTHEASTERN
COMMUNITIES MAY DIP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. SOME COMMUNITIES
NORTHEAST OF THE LEXINGTON AREA HAVE A 60 - 80% CHANCE OF DIPPING
BELOW FREEZING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, FREEZE WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE MAIN CONCERN
ARE FOR SENSITIVE VEGETATION PRONE TO FREEZES THIS EARLY IN THE
GROWING SEASON.
BEYOND THE MORNING HOURS, WINDS SHIFT TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AS THE SAME SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DRAW IN WARMER AIR FROM OUR SOUTH AND BOOST
TEMPERATURES WARMER INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. BESIDES A FEW
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME, WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS CALM AND SUNNY
WITH LIGHT WINDS. THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES ITS
TREK NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. SO BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, WARM FLOW MAY KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
THURSDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL STRETCH SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD AND SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S WITH SOME UPPER 70S BEING POSSIBLE.
BY FRIDAY, A SURFACE LOW GETS CARRIED EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION, SEPARATING A SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE SURFACE
HIGH, THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, TO THE SOUTH. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY SUNNY
AND DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER, LOW CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED THUNDER ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WE COULD HAVE
AROUND 1.25" OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ALONG THE FRONT. THE MOISTURE IS
THERE, BUT INSTABILITY AND OVERALL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED. THE
FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION.
SATURDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND CAA, SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY (AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT) ARE EXPECTED TO
ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND WAA, SOUTHERN KENTUCKY COULD SEE THE LOW 80S AS THE
FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, A RETURN OF WAA WILL LIFT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80 DURING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY, BUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, CLOUD COVER WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO LOOK BETTER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN
QUITE DRY, BUT WE WILL SEE SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. IN ADDITION, A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH
BASES AS LOW AS 12-15 KFT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT HNB/SDF/LEX.
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO VEER SSE AT 5-10 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ037-042-043.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...EBW
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