128
FXUS63 KLMK 081737
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
137 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
BLUEGRASS REGION.
* MAINLY DRY AND WARMER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (30-40%) AND A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON - FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
CONDITIONS ARE COOL AND DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR, THOUGH WE DO HAVE THIN CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KY AS WELL AS SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE BLUEGRASS
TO THE MID 40S IN SOUTHERN KY. LOWS THIS MORNING ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOWER 30S IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION, WITH TEMPS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KY SETTLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. AREAS ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE KENTUCKY RIVER HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE (GREATER
THAN 50%) OF TEMPS BRIEFLY DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AROUND SUNRISE. AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE AS 1037MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE US MAINTAINS INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH WILL TRACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
TOMORROW RESULTING IN INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER THE OH VALLEY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM E TO S
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL SKIRT BY HNB
OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD FLIRT WITH LLWS CONDITIONS.AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES, NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ARE
PLANNED.
A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE ARE POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EAST NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS JAMES BAY THURSDAY MORNING. A
RELATIVELY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TODAY. LOCALLY, WE WILL SEE SCT-
BKN HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVERHEAD. HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL AGAIN REMAIN FAIRLY DRY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT OVER THE EAST COAST, AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, WITH MID 70S
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KY. TONIGHT,
EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY EXIT OFF TO THE EAST. INCREASING SW
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MILDER AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST. EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST, THOUGH I COULD SEE OUR
COOLEST LOW-LYING SPOTS IN THE BLUEGRASS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
ON THURSDAY, THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SFC LOW ARE FORECAST TO
RACE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LONG TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND APPALACHIANS, LEAVING US
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SW FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THE WEAK COLD FRONT
IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. GIVEN MOISTURE POOLING AND WEAK ASCENT TIED
TO THE BOUNDARY, THERE IS A CHANCE (30-40%) FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-CENTRAL KY.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE STALLED BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND. HOWEVER,
THIS IS PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY
DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPER TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST. SATURDAY WILL
FEATURE A LARGER NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, EXPECT A VERY WARM SUNDAY WITH DEEPER SW FLOW IN
PLACE AND STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
80S.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MULTIPLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES DEVELOP NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLDS OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STILL OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST EARLY
IN THE WEEK. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE/PATTERN SUGGEST SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT SE WINDS ONGOING. CLOUDS NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KFT WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE, NO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS A LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS JET WILL
BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH
OCCASIONAL 20-25 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE. LLWS IS EXPECTED
BELOW 1,000 FT AGL IN THE MORNING THOUGH THIS WILL PULL TO THE NORTH
AND OUT OF THE AREA BY NOON EASTERN TIME. WIND SHEAR IS MAINLY A
CONCERN FOR SDF AND HNB AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS LINGER INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BKF
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