727
FXUS63 KLMK 090705
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WE BEGIN A GENERAL WARMING TREND NOW UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
* WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHWESTERN COMMUNITIES
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS START TO CALM EVERYWHERE AFTER 12 NOON
EDT.
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (30-40%) AND A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON - FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
* MAINLY DRY AND WARM OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ON
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST TO GET INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER
70S. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA, AND IS EXPECTED DEPART TO OUR NORTH BY
MIDDAY. RECENT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING GUSTY CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE
UNTIL NOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE
EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF THE GUSTS IS FULLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
MIXING WITH THE LLJ TAKES PLACE. WIND GUSTS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30-
35 MPH LATE AROUND 10-11 AM EDT/9-10 AM CDT FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES (40-60% CHANCE), THOUGH FOR NOW WE ARE CONTINUING TO
FORECAST FOR GUSTS AROUND THE 20-25 MPH RANGE FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF LOUISVILLE.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RETREATS TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, PERSISTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY NEAR-TERM CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (20-
30%), THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS ARE MINIMAL. SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-TO-MID
50S, WITH FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EASTWARD OVER QUEBEC
AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. UPSTREAM, AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS OCCURS AHEAD OF DEEPER TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS, PERSISTENT RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGER SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THOSE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS, A QUICKLY
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. AN AXIS OF MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH PW VALUES UP TO 1.0-
1.1 INCHES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUICKLY LOSES UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT BY SATURDAY. WHILE FORCING LOOKS QUITE
WEAK OVERALL, WEAK CONVERGENCE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
TOP OUT AT 30-40% ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THE WASHED OUT BOUNDARY AND POOL OF MOISTURE LINGER OVER CENTRAL KY
ON SATURDAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER,
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S NORTH OF I-64
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN KY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL RACE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
RELATIVELY STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL HELP INDUCE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. WE WILL STAY DRY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW YIELDING WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN SW LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS WILL STREAM
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, KEEPING
ANY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RACE NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ROBUST SW LLJ AND A DEEP PLUME
OF MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY MONDAY
EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM INTO NEXT WEEK WITH BROAD SW FLOW
AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN US WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST
THIS COULD LEAD TO STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THIS WAVE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST COULD THEN BRING US MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. EXTENDED RANGE ML SEVERE WEATHER GUIDANCE
HIGHLIGHTS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY WITH
ELEVATED PROBABILITIES BY THIS TIME, SO AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SEEMS REASONABLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ANY PRESENT
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING OUT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. A LLJ WILL
RESULT IN A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF MARGINAL LLWS FOR SDF AND HNB EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING RELATIVELY CALM BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BEN
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