808
FXUS63 KLMK 100602
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
202 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BEFORE CLOUDS
FORM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE BLUEGRASS (30-40%) WHILE
AREAS SOUTHERN AREAS LIKELY REMAIN DRY (75%) SATURDAY
* HEAT BUILDS IN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
* HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND PLEASANT AREA WIDE. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE EXITING TO THE NORTH, THOUGH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE OHIO IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO.
SUNNY SKIES ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA AND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S, TODAY WILL BE AN EXCELLENT DAY
TO BE OUTDOORS SOAKING IN SUN. WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE CHILLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES TO START WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. NOTICEABLY, BY LATE MORNING AND
LUNCH TIME, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL SNEAK IN FROM THE NORTH VERY SLOWLY.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS AND SOME RAIN
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL SAG INTO OUR NORTHERN
COMMUNITIES. WITH SOME INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING, THUNDER
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS STRONGER
SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA. ONSET TIMING FOR
SHOWERS WILL MOST LIKELY START BETWEEN 9 PM - MIDNIGHT (75% CHANCE
OF THIS TIMING), THOUGH RAIN COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AS LATE AS THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THESE SPOTTY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
SATURDAY MORNING BEGINS MOSTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN REGIONS
NEAR BOWLING GREEN AND POINTS SOUTH WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
RAIN SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT STALLS RIGHT OVER OUR CWA, DRAPED GENERALLY IN A NW - SE
DIRECTION. THOSE NEAR THE TN BORDER MAY REMAIN DRY (75% CHANCE OF NO
RAIN) WHILE PLACES NORTH OF THIS COLD FRONT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
OHIO WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 0.2" (90%) OF RAIN BY
SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE NORTH IN
THE LOW 70S NORTH OF THE BLUEGRASS TO NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE TN
BORDER. ANY SPOTTY SHOWERS END SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BAND OF CLOUDS
FROM THE FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATES AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
SO BY SUNDAY, EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S.
HOWEVER, WITH THE RIDGE COMING IN, SW FLOW WILL QUICKLY WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT MOVING IN
WITH CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES MAY REACH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES, WITH 90TH PERCENTILE HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S, BUT
THIS ISN'T A GUARANTEE SO ITS SOMETHING WORTH NOTING. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS OR MAYBE A STORM COULD MOVE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE RATHER SPOTTY AS WELL, WITH
NOT EVERYONE SEEING RAINFALL FROM THIS SHORTWAVE.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS RATHER UNSETTLED, WITH
VARIABLE LOW RAIN POSSIBILITIES FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. STARTING MONDAY MORNING, THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
DRAG TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
STALL SOMEWHERE TO OUR WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL ACT AS A ROADWAY FOR
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO TRAVEL CLOSE BY, CREATING POP-UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS. AS LONG AS WE STAY TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A SW FLOW ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
RUNNING HIGH. CURRENT TOTAL RAINFALL GUIDANCE IS RIGHT-SKEWED WITH A
CONSENSUS ON RAINFALL TOTALS UNDER 1.5" BY FRIDAY, THOUGH MORE
ROBUST SOLUTIONS ARE PRODUCING TOTALS CLOSER TO 2.5" INCHES BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL MONITOR FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL AND DROUGHT RELIEF WITH THIS PATTERN SETUP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z SATURDAY. AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY, CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO 4-5 KFT WITH THE
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR, BUT CIRRUS ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER MO/IL WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ESE OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS UPSTREAM HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD
FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER THIS EVENING. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY SW WINDS TODAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH HNB/SDF/LEX BETWEEN 21-05Z. ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME, WITH ANY PRECIP BECOMING FAIRLY
SPOTTY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...EBW
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