366
FXUS63 KLMK 110618
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
218 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH-
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
* WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL RECORD WARMTH
MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
* HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL IN WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. KIND WSR-88D IS
SHOWING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS OF 18Z.
CURRENT HI-RES GUIDANCE BRINGS A BROKEN/SCATTERED AREA OF SHOWERS
INTO SOUTHERN IN TO THE OHIO RIVER BETWEEN 22-00Z BUT THE TREND IS
LEANING MORE TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE A 20-40
POP ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM 21 TO 00Z THEN
FALLING OFF WITH THE SETTING SUN AFTER 00Z. WHILE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT THE PROBABILITY LOOKS VERY LOW AS WE LACK
INSTABILITY AND GOOD FORCING LATER THIS EVENING.
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AND STALL OUT ALONG THE KY/TN
BORDER AS WE GO INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE OVERALL FORECAST
LOOKS DRY FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND BUT CAN'T RULE OUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE
BOUNDARY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET.
SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT AS
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. INCREASED SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL HELP BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AFTER
HAVING HIGHS INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL WORK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ) WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES
OF THUNDER. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NOTABLE LACK
OF INSTABILITY, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTION.
THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STOUT UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD, COUNTERED BY
GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THIS SETUP
PLACES AN ACTIVE CORRIDOR OF WEATHER FROM CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
FOR SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY, THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HINGES ENTIRELY
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN RIDGE:
- THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS STRONGER AND MORE EXPANSIVE KEEPING THE THE
CWA MAINLY DRY WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA.
- THE GFS SOLUTION IS A WEAKER WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE AXIS OF SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY TO DRIFT FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE THE LREF
GRAND ENSEMBLE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A 30-60% PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING 1 INCH OF RAIN, THE NBM REMAINS MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE AT
LESS THAN 10%. GIVEN THE CURRENT WEIGHTING TOWARDS THE STRONGER
RIDGE SOLUTION, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER A
HALF INCH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... WITH RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND PERSISTENT SW
FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. WE COULD POTENTIALLY CHALLENGE RECORD HIGHS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
TERMINALS CONTINUE TO BE IN VFR CONDITIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SDF THAT IS UNDER AN AREA OF MFVR CEILINGS THAT SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR
A COUPLE MORE HOURS. CEILINGS OVERALL WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD, WITH LEX AND RGA EXPECTED TO DROP
TO MVFR AFTER 09Z. CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE AFTER
THE MID MORNING HOURS, REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER BWG, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO PUT IT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BEN
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