821
FXUS63 KLMK 110720
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY, WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
* NEAR-RECORD WARMTH RETURNS SUNDAY, WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. A FEW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
* INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND POINTS NORTHWEST. DROUGHT-BUSTING
RAIN UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE
REGION, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TRAILING BEHIND. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE KY/TN BORDER AROUND SUNRISE, REMAINING THERE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S. HIGHS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, GETTING INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER 70S. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE KY/TN BORDER,
IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS
BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. WINDS SWILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE
SOUTH, USHERING IN WARMER AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
OVERVIEW...
A FAIRLY STATIC SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SOUTHEAST US
RIDGING AND WESTERN US TROUGHING FAVORED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE GENERAL SW FLOW PATTERN AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. FOR REFERENCE, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 MB HEIGHT
FIELDS EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF MODEL CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX ALSO HAS VALUES EXCEEDING 0.8 FOR BOTH MAXT AND MINT
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, AS WELL AS SHIFT OF TAILS VALUES OF 1-2 OVER THE
REGION. THIS SHOWS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES, AND ALSO SUPPORTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WELL OUTSIDE THE TYPICAL VALUES FOR MID APRIL.
SIGNALS IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ARE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN, AS
THE REGION WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A MORE ACTIVE REGIME TO
THE NORTHWEST AND A DRIER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE
CENTER OF UPPER RIDGING. INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
SLIDE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
TRANSIT WITHIN THE STEADIER LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. WHILE THE OHIO
VALLEY SHOULD BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THESE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, AT LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK, THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A
LOW (>20%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA SEVERAL DAYS
NEXT WEEK, WITH BETTER CHANCES THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. GIVEN
EMERGING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY,
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WOULD BE WELCOME ACROSS MANY PARTS OF THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY, THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY MORNING, THE PROBABILITY OF
GREATER THAN 1" OF RAIN RANGES FROM 10-20% ACROSS LAKE CUMBERLAND
AND THE SOUTHERN KY BLUEGRASS TO 40-60% ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY NIGHT...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS SW
FLOW RESUMES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP
MIXED LAYER SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA, WHICH COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES/WINDS ON THE
HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEWPOINTS ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG LLJ BRINGS HIGHER PWAT AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. SOUNDINGS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH INSTABILITY, AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, THOUGH A LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE (20-30%) FOR
A STORM DOES EXIST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY, ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT FIELDS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
MAINTAINING OR EVEN SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA. WHILE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S WITH SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
DEWPOINTS, A LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED TRIGGER AND LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CURTAIL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ONE OF THE MANY TRANSIENT DISTURBANCES SHOULD
KICK OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WHILE
EARLIER MODEL RUNS DID HINT AT A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS TO PUSH
TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING, RECENT TRENDS
SHOW A DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR STORMS THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...
NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, ADDITIONAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE BROAD
SW FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO CUT INTO THE SE RIDGE A BIT MORE, BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE AI/ML
SEVERE CONVECTION GUIDANCE DOES SHOW INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE DISTURBANCES, THE SIGNAL IS STILL FAIRLY
DIFFUSE AND IS RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO RECENT HIGHER-
IMPACT SETUPS. LATE NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING
TO CONVERGE ON AN ADDITIONAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN US RIDGE
WHICH WILL FAVOR DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. IF THIS TREND HOLDS,
WOULD EXPECT POPS TO DECREASE IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS, WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INCREASE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
TERMINALS CONTINUE TO BE IN VFR CONDITIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SDF THAT IS UNDER AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS THAT SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR
A COUPLE MORE HOURS. CEILINGS OVERALL WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD, WITH LEX AND RGA EXPECTED TO DROP
TO MVFR AFTER 09Z. CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE AFTER
THE MID MORNING HOURS, REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER BWG, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO PUT IT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...BEN
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