124
FXUS63 KLMK 121752
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
152 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* NEAR-RECORD WARMTH RETURNS TODAY, WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. A FEW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY.
* INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
FAVORED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND POINTS NORTHWEST.
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THE
PROBABILITY AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
EXPECT A WARM AND BREEZY DAY, AND THINGS ARE ON TRACK SO FAR AS
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY SURGED INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. BIGGEST FOCUS
WILL BE FOR SOME ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM
INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S, MIN RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 25-35% RANGE,
AND SMALL FUELS DRY OUT. CURRENTLY, 10 HOUR FUEL OBS ARE SITTING IN
THE 18-27% RANGE ACROSS OUR CWA, AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 9-
12% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT SMALL FUELS AREN'T EXPECT TO
DROP BELOW THE CRITICAL 8% VALUE, AND THAT SOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
UPPER SKY COVER SHOULD BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 18-21Z, THINKING WE'LL
BE OKAY WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED FIRE
CONCERNS. IN ADDITION, 20 FOOT WINDS ARE MAINLY EXPECT TO BE IN THE
SUSTAINED 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP AROUND 20
MPH. ALSO MARGINAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS, BUT IT APPEARS
CURRENT MESSAGING LOOKS GOOD. THERE IS POTENTIAL TO MIX PRETTY DEEP
AND FOR DEW POINTS TO GO LOWER THAN EXPECTED, HOWEVER NOT SURE THERE
WILL BE LONG ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME TO HAVE THAT MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON
THE SMALL FUELS DROPPING DEEPER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AS OUR WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE KY/TN BORDER HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTH. EVEN WITH THE SFC
HIGH ALSO RETREATING TO OUR NORTH, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS WILL ALLOW US TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE PLACEMENT
OF THE SFC HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A SFC LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL SET UP A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION BY MID-
MORNING, RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 MPH ARE FORECAST, DECREASING BY THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GET INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 80S THAT COULD FLIRT
WITH OUR RECORD HIGHS IN LOUISVILLE (87) AND LEXINGTON (85).
LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL BE IMPACTFUL FOR BOTH OUR TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS TODAY AS SOME DRIER AIR COULD MIX DOWN. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW RH VALUES FROM THE MIXING, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
GUSTY WINDS, AND SEVERE DROUGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
GIVES SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HREF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUT US UNDER A LAYER OF UPPER CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON THAT WOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF DEEPER MIXING AND REDUCTION
IN RH VALUES. WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER SPS SHORTLY TO FURTHER
MESSAGE OUR CONCERNS FOR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT, ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL HAVE TO COMBAT THE DRY AIR FROM SUNDAY, SO THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS (50-60%) WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. WINDS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND THE COMBINATION OF THAT AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY HAVE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID-
TO-UPPER 60S THAT COULD THREATEN RECORD WARM MINIMUMS FOR LOUISVILLE
(69), LEXINGTON (64), BOWLING GREEN (67), AND FRANKFORT (63).
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY, ONLY GETTING
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE
REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FORM LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LINGERING FRONT, THOUGH CHANCES RIGHT NOW ARE LOW (< 15%).
MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S, CONTINUING
THE THEME OF POTENTIAL RECORD-SETTING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND,
A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CONUS,
WITH LREF ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS DEPICTING PERSISTENT HIGH
HEIGHTS/RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. IN CONTRAST PERSISTENT LOW
HEIGHTS/TROUGHING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH BROAD SW
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST US.
WITHIN THIS SW FLOW REGIME, A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US, BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS AS EACH SYSTEM PASSES.
THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
AVERAGE STORM TRACK, AND WHILE THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES SHOULD BE GENERALLY
GREATER TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES NOW EXCEED 0.9
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, INDICATING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL DAYS ALSO
FEATURE SHIFT OF TAILS VALUES OF 1-2, INDICATING AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER-END ANOMALIES WHICH COULD APPROACH OR BREAK
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TUESDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT...
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE BULK OF THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AS
THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE KEEPS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH INITIATE WHERE INGREDIENTS
ARE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA
COULD SPILL INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, THOUGH ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS
A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (20-
50%) IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA, THOUGH THIS MAY DECREASE AS HIGH-RES GUIDANCE PROVIDES
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE IN COMING DAYS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD
PROVIDE A DECENT CHANCE AT APPROACHING RECORD WARM MAX AND MIN
VALUES, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE A DEEPER DIG INTO RIDGING ALOFT, BRINGING A BETTER SURGE OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH 40-60% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN, AS DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILES (WITH TALL, SKINNY CAPE) MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE DOES SHOW 5-15% PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION THURSDAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, THOUGH THIS IS
RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO RECENT HIGHER-IMPACT SEVERE
EVENTS. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER ON THURSDAY, WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BEING THE
MOST LIKELY RANGE FOR HIGH TEMPS.
FRIDAY - NEXT WEEKEND...
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE THERE IS A LOW (10-20%)
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, IF
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONVERGE ON THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION,
WOULD EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE A DRY AND QUITE WARM DAY. FRIDAY MAY BE
OUR BEST CHANCE TO HIT 90 DEGREES OVER THIS FORTHCOMING WARM SPELL,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS PUTS
SATURDAY'S FORECAST INTO SOME DOUBT AT THIS TIME. IF THE SYSTEM
TRENDS SLOWER AND THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US HOLDS ON FOR
LONGER, SATURDAY MAY ALSO END UP WARM AND DRY. HOWEVER, A FASTER
SYSTEM/WEAKER RIDGE COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY EVENING. BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. A COOL-DOWN AND LIMITED
RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR A FEW DAYS AFTER THIS SYSTEM
PASSES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH FEW-SCT HIGH BASED
CUMULUS AROUND 7-8 K FEET, AND VARIABLE UPPER SKY COVER AS WELL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE
25 TO 30 MPH RANGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS SETTLE INTO THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE TONIGHT, HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LLWS AS A
40-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP OVER THE REGION. A FEW GUSTS MAY
OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT CONFIDENT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME SLIGHT VIS
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT HNB TOWARD THE
END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE, BUT OVERALL MOST CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
JUST ON THE VFR SIDE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...BJS
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