892
FXUS63 KLMK 121838
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
238 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, NEAR-RECORD
WARM CONDITIONS, DRY FUELS, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. BURNING IS NOT
RECOMMENDED AS FIRE BEHAVIOR COULD BECOME ERRATIC.
* NEAR-RECORD WARMTH RETURNS TODAY, WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. A FEW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY.
* INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
FAVORED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND POINTS NORTHWEST.
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THE
PROBABILITY AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
A WARM AND BREEZY DAY ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AT THIS HOUR. GUSTS ARE MOSTLY
RANGING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BEFORE TAPERING WITH SUNSET. UPPER
SKY COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM W TO E THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY DEEPER
MIXING AS THIS OCCURS. MIN RHS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20
TO MID 30 PERCENT RANGE, AND DON'T EXPECT THEM TO GO A WHOLE LOT
LOWER. HAVE BEEN MONITORING RAWS AND OTHER OBSERVING STATIONS, AND
20 FOOT WINDS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
10 HOUR FUELS ARE ALSO RANGING FROM 10 TO 18% AT THIS HOUR. ALSO,
HAVEN'T SEEN ANY WILDFIRES SHOW UP ON THE DAY FIRE RGB SATELLITE
IMAGERY, BUT WILL KEEP THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MESSAGING GOING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT, AND WILL SPARK SCATTERED
UPSTREAM CONVECTION WITH THE AID OF A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.
EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER, COULD SURVIVE INTO OUR AREA AFTER 06Z THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL BE BATTLING OUR DRY
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS, SO DON'T EXPECT A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
AND THEY MAY NOT SURVIVE VERY WELL. THAT BEING SAID, WE COULD GET
SOME PRETTY DECENT GUSTS THANKS TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS AND TAPPING
INTO THE LOW LEVEL JET MOMENTUM, AND PERHAPS A BIT OF A COLD POOL
SURGE FROM COLLAPSING STORMS IF THEY DO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA.
SOMETHING TO BE MINDFUL OF OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING, HOWEVER EXPECT TO TREND
DRIER AND CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HOWEVER A PRETTY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION
SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS SEEMS PRETTY REASONABLE
AS SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S,
ESPECIALLY IF THE COOLER AIR IS CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BY DECAYING
SHOWERS/STORMS. LOOK FOR A MILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
AND MID 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY EVENING...
THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SE CONUS
UPPER RIDGING, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY EJECTING OUT OF THE SW
CONUS. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES (20-30%) ON REMNANT
OUTFLOW ACROSS OUR NE CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING, WE'LL STAY DRY AND
VERY WARM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOW AND MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA, AND THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS THAT ARE IN THE
MID 80S FOR LEX AND IN THE UPPER 80S FOR SDF/BWG. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST SITS BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE IN
TEMPERATURES BUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AMONG ALL
DATA, AND THESE VALUES COULD INCREASE AS WE APPROACH MID WEEK. THE
SAME STORY HOLDS TRUE FOR WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST
VALUES ARE RIGHT AROUND RECORD HIGHS ALREADY AND COULD TREND WARMER
STILL. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON TIMING,
DECAYING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS TO LATE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY, WHICH ISN'T A GREAT TIME
FORE SEVERE WEATHER. IN ADDITION, OUR ANTECEDENT DRY/SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS FROM PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING WON'T BE AN INVITING
ENVIRONMENT FOR UPSTREAM STORMS TO TRAVEL INTO. THAT BEING SAID, WE
COULD STILL GET SOME PRETTY STRONG OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS INTO OUR
WEST DURING THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME FRAME
FOR A POTENTIAL STRONG GUSTY WIND THREAT, MAINLY WEST OF I-65.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHATEVER REMNANTS WE GET FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA, AND
ALSO PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
RIGHT NOW, WE HAVE .25" -.33" OF RAINFALL FORECAST, AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR THURSDAY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED SURFACE FRONT PUSH THROUGH BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE A BIT COOLER IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING SYSTEM.
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGING GETS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY WITH NEAR-
RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY, AND THE ONLY REAL QUESTION IS HOW
LONG THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD? BY SATURDAY, CENTRAL CONUS
TROUGHING WILL BEGIN PUSHING EASTWARD WHILE OUR SE CONUS RIDGE TRIES
TO HOLD INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA. MEANWHILE, STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA,
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. SATURDAY LIKELY STARTS OUT DRY, BUT
WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TIMING OF ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSTREAM SHOWERS
AND STORMS APPROACHING OUR AREA. THE OVERALL TREND OF THIS SYSTEM
HAS SPED UP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND CURRENTLY SUGGEST WE COULD
SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS BY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, HOWEVER SOME
DATA STILL KEEPS THE SYSTEM A BIT SLOWER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. TIMING IS EVERYTHING FOR THE SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING
FORECAST AS IT COULD BE A VERY WARM AND DRY DAY IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTION PREVAILS. OR, IT COULD FEATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS (PERHAPS
STRONG?) WITH OVERALL COOLER TEMPS. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH FEW-SCT HIGH BASED
CUMULUS AROUND 7-8 K FEET, AND VARIABLE UPPER SKY COVER AS WELL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE
25 TO 30 MPH RANGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS SETTLE INTO THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE TONIGHT, HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LLWS AS A
40-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP OVER THE REGION. A FEW GUSTS MAY
OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT CONFIDENT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME SLIGHT VIS
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT HNB TOWARD THE
END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE, BUT OVERALL MOST CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
JUST ON THE VFR SIDE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS
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