729
FXUS63 KLMK 130738
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
338 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40-
60%) BETWEEN SUNRISE AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A STRAY STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
* WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A FEW TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY.
* INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
FAVORED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND POINTS NORTHWEST.
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THE
PROBABILITY REMAINS LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. A 50-55 KT
H85 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES, AND THIS SOUTHERLY JET IS ATTEMPTING
TO MOISTEN WHAT IS A VERY DRY ANTECEDENT COLUMN ACROSS SOUTHERN IN
AND CENTRAL KY. TOP-DOWN SATURATION WILL CONTINUE LATER THIS
MORNING, WITH HREF MEAN PW VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM LESS
THAN 1" TO 1.3-1.5" ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. BETWEEN NOW AND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING, A LOW-LEVEL THETA-E SURGE ACROSS SOUTHERN IL
AND CENTRAL IN WILL ATTEMPT TO INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION, SOME
OF WHICH COULD DRIFT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD CAUSE ANY
CONVECTION TO WEAKEN, SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. WHILE THE STRONGER 850 MB FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE AREA, ANY SHOWERS COULD PULL DOWN 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS,
WITH THIS POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE.
LATER TODAY, WHILE THE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA,
THE MOISTURE PLUME BROUGHT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS WAVE SHOULD
LINGER OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT, WHILE OVERALL FORCING AND INSTABILITY
IS VERY MODEST, HI-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED BETWEEN SUNRISE AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. 0Z HREF QPF LOCALIZED PROB.-MATCHED MEAN SUGGESTS
THAT MOST LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVE RAIN TODAY SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH, WITH "WINNERS" RECEIVING AS MUCH AS HALF AN
INCH. BY MID-AFTERNOON, A LACK OF A REINFORCING SHOT OF
FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO MIX OUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, WE'LL
CARRY A 10-20% CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/STORM INTO THE EVENING FOR ANY
ISOLATED CELLS WHICH COULD FORM THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER TODAY, WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TAKE A SMALL STEP DOWN, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED.
TONIGHT, MOST IF NOT ALL LINGERING DIURNAL CU SHOULD CLEAR WITH
SCATTERED MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BE LESS
GUSTY AFTER SUNSET. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO COOL, WITH
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING EXPECTED IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS.
TUESDAY - TUESDAY NIGHT...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS WE
HEAD INTO TUESDAY, WITH WARM SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE MOST LIKELY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY (80-90% CONFIDENCE)
FEATURES DRY CONDITIONS, AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE US IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTION IN SPITE OF ELEVATED LLVL MOISTURE
(HREF MEAN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S). HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO FORM IN/NEAR THE NORTHERN CWA
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH INTO INDIANA
BEFORE WEAKENING TUESDAY MORNING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING
ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT-RANGE PROGS SHOW 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE
ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH WITHOUT NOTABLE
FORCING, THE SOUNDING PROFILE WOULD BE CAPPED.
OTHERWISE, TOMORROW WILL BE VERY WARM WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS AGAIN
EXPECTED. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE MID 80S, WITH A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ALONG/WEST OF I-65. RINSE
AND REPEAT TUESDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT S/SW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SE CONUS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS, AS WELL AS ALONG THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW'S COLD
FRONT. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH THE MAIN CORE OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH. CHANCES DURING THE MORNING ARE FAIRLY LOW (15-20% FOR
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND LESS THAN 15% FOR KENTUCKY), THOUGH WILL
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWS FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
SLIGHTLY INCREASE OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA (20-
30%), WITH THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINING BELOW 15%. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
AS THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPART TO OVER NORTHEAST,
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CALM, WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH DECAYING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE GUSTY. THE LINE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE DEPARTING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
LREF GUIDANCE HAVING THE AREA GET BETWEEN 0.20" AND 0.30" OUT OF
THIS EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER EVEN WITH WINDS CONTINUING
TO PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE COOLER, DROPPING INTO THE LOW 60S.
FRIDAY - MONDAY...
THE SE CONUS RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
DEPARTS TO THE EAST, WITH WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AND CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. A SMALL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT THAT COULD SKIRT THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA, PROVIDING A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE NEXT POINT OF CONCERN COMES ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT OF A
STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES TOWARDS OUR
REGION, PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE SE
RIDGE GIVES WAY TO THE SYSTEM, LETTING IT PROGRESS EASTWARD.
GUIDANCE IS STILL UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH SOME MODELS BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HAVING IT ENTER THE AREA
LATE AFTERNOON, WITH OTHER MODELS BEING MUCH SLOWER AND HAVING IT
MOVE THROUGH AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, AS THE TIMING WILL PLAY A ROLE ON
HOW WARM WE GET AND THE INTENSITY OF THOSE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
THEY MOVE THROUGH.
MUCH CALMER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL ONLY GET
INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S SATURDAY NIGHT
AND DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
A 45 KT LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS HOUR, WITH LLWS AND
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS/GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE
NEXT 2-5 HOURS. LATER THIS MORNING, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER AS RICHER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT HNB, AND WHILE THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LOWER CIGS AT SDF/LEX, WE'LL KEEP VFR CIGS IN
THE FORECAST GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. LATER THIS MORNING,
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. WHILE PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, BRIEF MVFR VIS AND CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHRA. A STRAY STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT EITHER, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TS IS LOW. OTHERWISE, CONTINUED GUSTY S/SW WINDS AND
HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATUS/STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO SCATTER LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD RELAX
AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...CSG
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