277
FXUS63 KLMK 131919
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
319 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A FEW TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY.
* RAIN FROM A QUICK-HITTING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED THURSDAY, THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY (80%) REMAIN LIGHT UNDER 0.5" IN BY FRIDAY
MORNING
* FRIDAY IS VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
* MONITORING A COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT WEEKEND
EVENTS IN LOUISVILLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND STORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KY. THESE SHOWERS ARE OUTPACING THE INSTABILITY AXIS,
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
HIGHER PWAT AXIS. THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL END THIS AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO A MOSTLY DRY EVENING DUE TO A LACK OF ANY FORCING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM TONIGHT, WHICH COULD CHALLENGE WARM MIN
TEMPS FOR TODAY IF WE DON'T DROP INTO THE 60S BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
WE REMAIN IN WARM SW FLOW TOMORROW, WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
AND WESTERN US TROUGHING. SIMILAR TO TODAY, TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO
BE WARM AND BREEZY, THOUGH WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE EVEN WARMER TOMORROW, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THOUGH THERE
IS A LOW-END CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THIS, AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT PER THE HREF
PAINTBALLS, BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY PRESENT GIVEN
THE WARM TEMPS TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT
WEDNESDAY BEGINS WARM AND QUIET WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK WARM
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING RANGING IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70 IN SOME AREAS. PASSING CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH THE DAY
FROM A SLOWLY APPROACHING JET STREAK TO OUR NORTHWEST, WHICH MAY
LIMIT SOME DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE OR CREATE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY RAIN IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COMMUNITIES (20-30% OF MEASURABLE RAIN). REGARDLESS,
MID TO LOWER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE, AMPLIFYING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE LOW
TO UPPER 80S IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK RECORD
HIGHS, ESPECIALLY IN WARMER SOUTHERN COMMUNITIES. BROKEN CLOUD COVER
MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE ROLLS IN A LITTLE
CLOSER HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH THE AMPLE HEAT FROM WEDNESDAY, MORNING LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL
RUN HIGH TOO, WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN TO BREAK HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THE SHORT TERM PATTERN ON
THURSDAY CHANGES SOME, AS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST, BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING IS INCREASING WITH THE FRONT
DROPPING MEASURABLE RAIN NEAR 11AM - 2 PM IN THE WEST AND AS LATE AS
5-7 PM IN THE EAST (75% OF THIS ONSET TIMING). HIGHS AREA WIDE WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FURTHER
EAST AS THEY WILL TAKE THE LONGEST FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO SWEEP
THROUGH. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL VARY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STORMS THOUGH A GENERAL 0.25 - 0.5" IN OF RAIN
MAY FALL ACROSS THE AREA (50-80% OF THIS AMOUNT) WITH ISOLATED 0.75"
IN (<10%).
RIDGING RETURNS FRIDAY THOUGH WITH SKIES CLEARING DURING THE DAY.
MORNING LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD BUT PROBABLY NOT RECORD BREAKING IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING, FRIDAY
SHOULD BE NICE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AGAIN (<20%). HIGHS MAY BE
RECORD BREAKING ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND MAYBE EVEN A
FEW SPOTS REACHING 90 DEGREES. THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF A LARGER TROUGH
MOVING IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF SATURDAY'S WEATHER.
SATURDAY - MONDAY
SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. S TO SW FLOW WILL DOMINATE AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING HIGHS
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. ANY AFTERNOON PLANS NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR POTENTIAL DISRUPTIONS AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS,
HOWEVER THREATS FROM GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND LIGHTNING
ARE THE BIGGEST CONCERNS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS KEY AND CURRENT
ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS HAS THE FRONT MOVING IN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, OR
WAITING UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. WHENEVER THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST US
RELENTS AND MOVES FURTHER EAST WILL DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY STORMS
ROLL IN. STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH TIMING IN THE
AFTERNOON OR WEAKER STORMS MAY RESULT WITH OVERNIGHT TIMING.
REGARDLESS, EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN THIS SATURDAY AND WE WILL MONITOR
THIS THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS, COOLER AIR AND SOME GUSTY MORNING WINDS WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY AS HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REINFORCE THIS COOLER AIR LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY HEADING INTO MONDAY. CALMER WEATHER LINGERS AS LONG AS THIS
HIGH STICKS AROUND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING FOR THE WHOLE AREA DESPITE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS NEAR LEX AND OVER RGA. SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE AREA WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW THIS WAS NOT EXPLICITLY INCLUDED IN FORECAST.
MESSY CLOUD DECKS OF SCT-BKN NEAR 10 KFT AND BKN-OVC NEAR 25 KFT
WILL STICK AROUND THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. SW TO S WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE
PERIOD, AND WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT 05Z, A LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE IN WITH
WINDS FROM THE SW OF UP TO 40KTS ENDING FROM 11-13Z. BWG MAY AVOID
THIS THREAT AS THE JET LOOKS TO STAY TOO FAR NORTH FOR THEM.
OTHERWISE, WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH RETURN TOMORROW MORNING AREA WIDE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...BKF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page