270
FXUS63 KLMK 141058
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
658 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A FEW TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TODAY,
TOMORROW, AND FRIDAY.
* THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY. MOST
LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.2-0.5" ACROSS THE AREA. THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS IS RELATIVELY LOW, BUT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT THIS TIME.
* A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW-END THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS EXISTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THIS MORNING, QUIET AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION PASS OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS A FAIRLY NOTABLE WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING AS DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR HAS FILTERED IN OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO EAST/EAST CENTRAL KY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS GRADIENT TO HOLD THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE DAYTIME
HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION HELPS TO REDUCE THE TEMPERATURE AND
MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
TODAY, THE PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OF SOUTHEAST US UPPER
RIDGING AND WESTERN US TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH DEEP
SW FLOW CONTINUING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS NW. ANOTHER
BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE PERSISTENCE, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WHILE WE HAVE A 35-45
KT 850MB JET OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING, THIS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER
TODAY, THOUGH WE STILL EXPECT SW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND WIND GUSTS
OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, THERE IS
A 90+% CHANCE OF DRY WEATHER TODAY. HOWEVER, HREF REFLECTIVITY
PAINTBALLS DO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
BLUEGRASS LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL IL/IN MAY APPROACH OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ZONES, MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SALEM, IN TO PARIS, KY. THERE IS ONLY A 10-
20% CHANCE OF A STORM IN THESE AREAS, BUT IF UPSTREAM CONVECTION WAS
ABLE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION, 1000-1500
J/KG MLCAPE AND 30 KT OF BULK SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH THE AXIS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION. LOWS WILL BE MILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH MORE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TOMORROW, WHICH COULD ALLOW SUCCESSIVE WAVES OF
CONVECTION TO GET CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES. THERE IS A 20-
30% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RIVER WEDNESDAY;
HOWEVER, A LOT OF THE CHANCE THAT DOES EXIST IS DEPENDENT ON
UPSTREAM CONVECTION, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 80S ACROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW. IF MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LESS PREVALENT
THAN EXPECTED, UPPER 80S WOULD BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN KY. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN 1-3 DEGREES OF
DAILY RECORDS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL EROSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. CURRENT MOST-LIKELY TIMING HAS PRECIPITATION ARRIVING
WEST OF I-65 AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY, SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. NEAR-PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON LOW TEMPS IS EXPECTED, WITH
MOST AREAS FALLING INTO THE 60S THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
THURSDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION. SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY DURING THE DAY,
WITH THE RELATIVELY DIFFUSE FORCING LIKELY RESULTING IN MULTIPLE
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION. MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE CONVECTION GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MODEST SIGNAL (5-15% CHANCE) FOR STRONG STORMS THURSDAY, AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND DEEP SATURATION
MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. STILL, A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS.
ENSEMBLE MEAN RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THURSDAY'S CHANCE RANGE FROM A FEW
TENTHS ACROSS LAKE CUMBERLAND AND THE I-75 CORRIDOR TO AROUND 0.50"
IN SOUTHWEST IN/WESTERN KY, SO IT'S UNLIKELY THAT WE'LL BE ABLE TO
MAKE MUCH OF A DENT IN THE DROUGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS WARM GIVEN THE EXTRA CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 75-80.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS AGAIN FORECAST IN THE LOW-TO-MID
80S.
A BAND OF INCREASING SW FLOW WILL NOSE INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION WING
POTENTIALLY INITIATING SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
WEST OF I-65 FRIDAY NIGHT, AND SOME STRONG UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD
SPILL INTO THE AREA; HOWEVER, IT IS STILL MORE LIKELY THAT WE REMAIN
DRY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BRINGING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SATURDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST VERY WARM DAY IN THIS
STRETCH, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW-TO-MID 80S.
WITH THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTING WELL TO THE NORTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES, OUR CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY SHOULD COME
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO FROPA TIMING WILL BE KEY
TO SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER THE PAST
FEW MODEL RUNS, A SLIGHTLY FASTER TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN THIS
SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (60-70%) NOW
OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS IS NOW
FEATURED AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY, WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND FROM THE
SW TO THE W/NW WITH COLD FROPA.
THE SEVERE SETUP ON SATURDAY IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THURSDAY IN THAT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN AREAS UPSTREAM ON FRIDAY
DUE TO DEEP SATURATION AND CLOUD COVER, ALTHOUGH FORCING ALONG THE
WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
IS RELATIVELY SIMILAR, SHOWING A 5-15% CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. WOULD ALSO EXPECT SIMILAR THREATS AS THURSDAY, WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ROBUST COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SEND
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY-BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEAVING THE
OHIO VALLEY UNDER A NW FLOW PATTERN. THIS SHOULD BRING
COOL/SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. THE
MAIN IMPACT TODAY SHOULD BE GUSTY SW WINDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
12-17 KT AND GUSTS OF 20-26 KT EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 14-22Z. ALSO
EXPECT A STRATOCU LAYER TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING, WITH CIGS
GENERALLY AROUND 4-6K FT. THERE IS STILL A LOW (10%) CHANCE FOR TSRA
AT HNB/SDF/LEX THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE WILL KEEP THIS OUT OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT, WINDS SHOULD BECOME LESS
GUSTY AS THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION SETS UP. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR LLWS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, IT APPEARS
MARGINAL ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...CSG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page