291
FXUS63 KLMK 142318
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
718 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A FEW TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TOMORROW.
* MOSTLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
* A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW-END THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS EXISTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY
TODAY DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20-
30 MPH. WE REMAIN UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE, WHICH HAS KEPT MOST
PRECIP OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THERE ARE A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING
IN A WAA ZONE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ACROSS IL, AND THE LATEST WOFS PAINTBALL RUNS SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN THE REMAINING
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO APPROACH OUR
NORTHERNMOST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACCORDING TO MESOANALYSIS,
WE HAVE DESTABILIZED TO AROUND 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-40KTS,
THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WE LACK ANY
TRIGGER TO INITIATE. WILL WATCH FOR ANY STORMS THAT SNEAK NEAR THE
AREA, AND MONITOR ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW. SPC HAS KEPT
THE MARGINAL RISK CLIPPED IN OUR NORTHERN CORNER, BUT ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL NEAR OUR AREA WILL REALLY BE FOR CENTRAL IN AND OH. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH MILD TEMPS ONLY GETTING DOWN
INTO THE 60S AS WE REMAIN IN A WAA PATTERN.
ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S, AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH TOMORROW, KEEPING THE AXIS OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THE PARADE OF CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AS A
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. WE REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
TOMORROW, WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCE FOR PRECIP NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THAT
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR POPS TO
BEGIN TO CREEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE MOST WILL REMAIN
DRY UNTIL THURSDAY, SOME PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO ARRIVE IN OUR WEST
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
===== THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY =====
THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK,
WHICH WILL OPEN THE CORRIDOR FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ON THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE SHOWER AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED, THERE REMAINS LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE
POTENTIAL. SPC INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK, BUT THERE REMAINS PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY TO LIMIT CONFIDENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER
THICK CLOUD COVER AND PLENTY OF SATURATION IN THE COLUMN.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MORNING SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY, WHICH COULD HINDER AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 40KTS WILL SUPPORT
SOME ORGANIZATION WITH ANY REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY, SO AT
LEAST SOME STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AS BRIEF UPPER
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING LLJ
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN IN, BUT ISOLATED CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WK/BG PKWYS.
===== WEEKEND OUTLOOK =====
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH SW GUSTY GRADIENT SFC WINDS, WILL HELP
TEMPS REACH THE 80S FOR MOST AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST WHERE
LONGER DIURNAL HEATING WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY WILL
ARRIVE ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE UPSTREAM
SATURATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS,
STRONG FORCING ALONG THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING FRONT COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A LINE OF CONVECTION
PASSING THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GEFS AND GEPS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A 25-35% CHANCE FOR SBCAPE VALUES TO EXCEED 750
J/KG SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, DEEP LAYER SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE ALSO ADD TO THE CONFIDENCE IN STORM
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY. WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED, MAINLY
LOOKING AT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ON SATURDAY.
BEHIND FROPA, EXPECT TAPERING PRECIP CHANCES AND WINDS SHIFTING OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST. COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR WILL ALSO BE FILTERING IN,
LEADING TO TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 40S BY SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO FULLY
EXIT THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE
INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.
===== EARLY NEXT WEEK =====
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR ON
MONDAY, THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN IN A NW UPPER FLOW FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO
ANOTHER DRY STRETCH AT LEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL DURING THIS TIME, WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOW 70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH SCT/FEW HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. WIND GUSTS WILL START TO BACK OFF FOR TONIGHT, HOWEVER
RETURN FOR THE DAY TOMORROW. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED TO THE
NW AND COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF MINIMAL PERIOD OF LLWS TONIGHT (05Z-
08Z). MOSTLY DRY DAY TOMORROW WITH A LOW CHANCE (<20%) OF SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HNB/SDF/BWG WILL SEE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL BKN SKIES, WHILE LEX/RGA WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CAL
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