032
FXUS63 KLMK 281749
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
149 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREATS.
* TEMPERATURES COOL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND FOR LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY.
* MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ON FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
A LINE OF STORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS HOUR. THE
COLD FRONT BEHIND THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO STALL THIS MORNING AND PARK
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS THE LINE OF
STORMS CONTINUES SOUTHEAST, IT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE BETTER
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THOUGH VORTICITY
SHEDDING AND A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE UPPER RIDGING INTO
THE APPALACHIANS, WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN STORMS. ONCE STORMS
REACH THE BLUEGRASS/WESTERN KENTUCKY PARKWAYS, WE ARE EXPECTING
STORMS TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE. THOUGH, GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE LINE EXITS THE REGION. THE
LINE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION AROUND 6AM EDT.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WE WILL SEE SOME CLEARING (AFTER A MORNING OF
LOWER STRATUS) SKY COVER AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED HEIGHTS OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S OVER KENTUCKY. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL HELP TO
KEEP DEW POINTS INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S. WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, AS FORCING IS LACKING.
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING, SBCAPE AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL INCREASE TO 1600-2000 J/KG, PWATS TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES, AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50KTS. A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE OZARKS AND BRING AN MCS THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS EVENT.
GREATEST THREAT AREA WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. STORMS WILL
APPROACH THE REGION AROUND 7-8PM EDT (6-7PM CDT). THE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WILL WEAKEN BEYOND 6Z AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
ADDITIONALLY, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO
CYCLOGENESIS AS IT PASSES OVER THE REGION, THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS
BEEN STALLED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND
BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH IT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
===== WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY =====
DESPITE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING, EVERYONE
DRIES OUT BY MIDDAY WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING AND MOVING OUT TO
THE EAST IN THE EVENING. TUESDAY NIGHT'S SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
EJECT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND USHERING IN A TRAILING COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY. DRY AND COOLER NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS ALL DAY FOR EVERYONE LEADING TO A RATHER
COMFY DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. CLOUDS
COULD STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS A LITTLE WARMER IN
SOUTHERN AREAS, THOUGH LOWS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S.
A BROAD TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL KEEP USHERING IN COOLER AIR
REINFORCING THE COOLING TREND FOR THIS WEEK AT LEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. SO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LATER IN THE
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE COOLER
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S AGAIN.
FOR FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME IN THE 60S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. A LOWER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING IN A FEW
SHOWERS THOUGH ANY RAINFALL FROM THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND
UNLIKELY (20%). HOWEVER, THIS WILL USHER IN SOME MORE COLD AIR FROM
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH AND DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW MORE
DEGREES SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH A FEW
UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, CLOUDS STICK AROUND AS A LOW PRESSURE GLIDES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY ALBEIT
FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THAT
MIGHT GET A GLANCING BLOW FROM THIS STORM. SHOULD IT TRACK A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH OR FRIDAY'S WEAK COLD FRONT FAIL TO CLEAR OUR CWA,
LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY BUT FOR NOW WE'RE KEEPING POPS LOW
NEAR 30% NEAR THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA AND DRY WEATHER FOR EVERYONE
NORTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY. THE COLDEST LOWS OF THE WEEK WILL
BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW NORTHEASTERN AREAS HAVING A LOW
CHANCE OF FROST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS POINT BUT WILL BE MONITORED (<20% OF FROST IN NE AREAS)
BEYOND SATURDAY, THE PARENT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE SW
FLOW TO RETURN WITH HIGHS RAISING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME SIGNALS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS COULD BRING IN MORE RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT RAINFALL
TOTALS THIS FAR OUT LOOK TO BE LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
BKN MVFR CEILINGS LINGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THESE CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT QUICKLY TO VFR THROUGH 19Z, WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT AT LEAST A
SCT DECK LIFTING TO 3-5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER WEST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY, NUMEROUS TSRA HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF MO/AR. A CLUSTER OF THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH BWG BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS, HAIL,
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND LIGHTNING.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER, ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SHRA AND SCT TSRA WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR AND LOW-
END MVFR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE/LIFT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...EBW
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