298
FXUS63 KLMK 290521
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
121 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KY. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.
* TEMPERATURES COOL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND FOR LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY.
* MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FROM FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOMEWHAT
THICKER STRATUS LINGERING SOUTHEAST OF THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY. THE
LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND MIX OUT SOMEWHAT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 70S. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED SOUTHWEST THROUGH SDF AND PAH,
AND EXTENDING WEST THROUGH SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR. MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING SOUTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. MLCAPE OF
1000-3000 J/KG IS NOTED FROM CENTRAL KY SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN TN
AS OF THIS WRITING, AND HREF MEMBERS PLUS THE MOST RECENT HRRR/RAP
RUNS SUPPORT 2000+ J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY THROUGH 00Z
THIS EVENING.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED
SFC BOUNDARY. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
LIFT ENE ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 125 KT UPPER JET
STREAK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONAL SFC WAVE
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE OZARKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL KY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE BRINGS A CLUSTER OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS EAST THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KY THIS
EVENING. ARRIVAL TIME IN THE VICINITY OF OHIO, BUTLER, LOGAN, AND
WARREN COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-7 PM CDT. ABUNDANT CAPE, AS WELL
40-45 KT EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR, WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LOWER, BUT NON-ZERO. LOCALLY BACKED S/SE
SFC FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD
RESULT IN A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IN CENTRAL KY BETWEEN 00-06Z THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, A STABILIZING LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AFTER SUNSET
WILL ALSO LIMIT THE TORNADO RISK.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN OVERNIGHT.
BEYOND MIDNIGHT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED
IN NATURE. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS, BUT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED BY THIS TIME.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST. COOL, DRY NW FLOW THEN DEVELOPS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S NORTH OF I-64 AND AROUND
70 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN KY. SKIES CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S EARLY
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES
OVER OUR AREA. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW CAA TO FILL IN OVER THE
AREA, CONTINUING A COOLING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE
MID 60S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING AND EXITING BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN (< 25%), THOUGH HREF 24 HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS ONLY AMOUNT TO < 0.1" ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MO-MID 50S. A BROAD SHORTWAVE
WILL EJECT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING, MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE SE CONUS DURING THE DAY. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY MAY
SKIRT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARE ON THE LOWER END
(< 20%).
FOR THE WEEKEND, MORE ROBUST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN,
ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE COOLER, WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60, AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 60S. WITH
CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 30S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NE
PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVING A LOW (< 20%) CHANCE AT EXPERIENCING
FROST.
BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THE OVERALL WIND FLOW WILL FLIP TO THE
SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES (LOW 70S) TO RETURN. THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOWS A RETURN TO MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION,
THOUGH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME ON
THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, WE CURRENTLY
HAVE CHANCE (~25-35%) POPS IN THE GRIDS MONDAY-TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS, SOME
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS, AND LOW CIGS. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP PRE-
DAWN TO LOW-END MVFR AND HIGH-END IFR. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, CIGS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND PUSH
EAST LATE MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...SRW
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