093
FXUS63 KLMK 291013
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
613 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON.
* TEMPERATURES COOL THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION.
* MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ON FRIDAY MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS AND ON SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
* WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS ARE FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
===SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THIS MORNING===
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY, PROMOTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY, WITH MUCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED AROUND 300-500
J/KG, WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED, ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. AS
THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST, ADVECTING A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 40S.
===DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN===
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH RH MINIMA
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20 TO LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE, RESULTING IN A
PLEASANT SPRING DAY.
===LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY===
BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY, THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL AS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SITS UNDER THE BASE OF A BROADER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CONFLUENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW A STRONG
UPPER JET STREAK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED WITH
FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION, MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIFT,
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW (AROUND 0.6 INCHES), SO THESE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
===LIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY===
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES, PROMOTING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, IT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
===FROST POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING===
BY SUNDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BRING A RETURN TO DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ON SATURDAY MORNING, AND MID TO UPPER 30S ON
SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, ENSEMBLES SHOW A
50-60% CHANCE OF FROST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY
MORNING. IF REALIZED, THIS WOULD BE A LATE-SEASON FROST, AS
CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA SUGGESTS FROST BEYOND MAY 1 OCCURS IN ONLY 30%
OF ALL YEARS.
===ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK===
BY MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR
A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
SEE A STEADY INCREASE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. A POTENTIAL FUJIWARA INTERACTION
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES MAY LEAD TO MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS TRACKING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, BRINGING DAILY RAIN CHANCES. CONSULTING
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CLUSTERING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS, SOME
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS, AND LOW CIGS. CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO DROP
TO LOW-END MVFR AND HIGH-END IFR. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON, CIGS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND PUSH EAST LATE
MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW
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