075
FXUS63 KLMK 300713
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
* WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, BRINGING A FEW ISOLATED VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
* DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING WELL BELOW EARLY MAY VALUES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
* AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A FROST HEADLINE WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
* WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS ARE FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME WEAK RETURNS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KY EARLY THIS MORNING, DRIVEN BY WEAK PVA AND A 65KT 500MB JET
OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL CAA REGIME HAS NOT ONLY AIDED IN SFC TEMPS
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S SO FAR, BUT HAS ALSO FILTERED DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. DUE TO THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR, LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP IS MAKING IT TO THE SFC. THIS VIRGA ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF
TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE.
FOR TODAY, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS, WHICH WILL KEEP A STRONG INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED CAA REGIME WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS TODAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE EVENING HOURS, BUT EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER BY TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE
AREA AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH PLENTY OF DRY AIR
WILL COMBAT THESE PRECIP CHANCES. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN IN, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR COUNTIES SOUTH THE I-64 CORRIDOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS
FROPA WILL LACK DEEP MOISTURE, AND WILL EVEN HAVE A RATHER DEEP
LAYER OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO LIMIT OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS. DUE TO
THIS, HAVE KNOCKED DOWN PRECIP CHANCES TO NO MORE THAN 20 PERCENT
FOR FRIDAY AM FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. OVERALL QPF IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.1". CHILLY TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH TEMPS GETTING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
===== SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY =====
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE A SWITCH FROM ZONAL FLOW TO A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED TO
SOUTHEASTERN KY. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST GENEROUS OF THE GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON SATURDAY, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY STRONGER MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS, BUT ALSO DUE TO STEEPENING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSISTENCY AMONG THE
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAT A RATHER DRY LAYER UP TO 850MB SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP US DRY. WILL KEEP A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
SATURDAY, BUT GENERALLY LEANING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST. THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. THESE
FORECAST TEMPS WILL BE ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL EARLY
MAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S
COULD POSE OUR NEXT RISK FOR SOME FROST POTENTIAL, WHICH APPEARS
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE EAST OF I-65 AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
BLUEGRASS AS OF NOW. AS MENTIONED IN THE PRIOR DISCUSSION, THIS
WOULD BE CHARACTERIZED AS A LATE SEASON FROST AS OUR FROST
CLIMATOLOGY STATES THAT GETTING A FROST BEYOND MAY 1ST HAS A
PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30%. SO FOLKS THAT HAVE SET OUT VEGETATION
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO COVER THINGS UP SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL SOMEWHAT RECOVER AFTER THE COLD START,
THOUGH WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 60S.
===== EARLY NEXT WEEK =====
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. OUR PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES OVER SEVERAL DAYS AS THE COLD FRONT
STRUGGLES TO CLEAR OUR AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING, WITH NW WINDS AND A MIX OF
MID LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
PERIOD, WITH THE MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST ON WINDS. SFC WINDS
BECOME MORE N FLOW THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE.
VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS, THOUGH SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME A MORE NE COMPONENT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page