471
FXUS63 KLMK 010523
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, BRINGING A FEW ISOLATED VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
* DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING WELL BELOW EARLY MAY VALUES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
* AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A FROST HEADLINE WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
* WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS ARE FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
I-65 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST. A SMALL DIURNAL CU FIELD WAS NOTED
OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH WITH
LOW-MID 60S OVER THE SOUTH.
FOR TONIGHT, DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WE'LL SEE CLOUD COVER INCREASING THROUGH THE
EVENING AND BECOMING OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SOME SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT, THE ASCENT WILL BE FIGHTING
A LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR LAYER. SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW-MID 40S IN THE EAST WITH MID-UPPER 40S WEST OF I-65.
FOR FRIDAY, AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN, DESPITE SUBTLE LIFT
FROM THE WAVE AND THE FRONT, ANTECEDENT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO JUST A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. WHILE THE MORNING WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN
THE NORTH WITH MID-UPPER 60S DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S.
FOR SATURDAY, THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
US TROUGH WITH A SHARPER UPPER LEVEL WAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CORE THE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL DROP THROUGH
WESTERN KY AND INTO MIDDLE TN AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE I-24 CORRIDOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY SHOW LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. THE MAIN STORY FOR
SATURDAY WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN EARLY MAY ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AND WE'LL BE SOME 10-
15 DEGREES BELOW THAT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY.
LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
LATE SEASON FROST AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
BLUEGRASS WITH UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
MOVING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF THE EASTERN US COAST WITH A BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW TRAILING
BEHIND. SUNDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THE DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S. WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW A PERTURBATION IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO.
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS THE WEEK WEARS ON AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY
SWITCHES BACK TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL WORK BACK NORTH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT PUSH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
HERE, BUT THE DETAILS OF THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ARE NOT RESOLVABLE
AT THIS TIME RANGE. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH AXIS WILL
LIKELY SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN US RESULTING IN ANOTHER COOL DOWN
IN TEMPS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
KEEPING EYES ON A WEAKENING LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE TERMINALS TO
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH, WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS
WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE ON THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
TO NORTHWEST FLOW BY 16Z, AND EVENTUALLY A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
BY THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE WINDS BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, VFR PREVAILS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CJP
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