556
FXUS63 KLMK 010710
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
310 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING, BRINGING A FEW ISOLATED VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
* MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING WELL BELOW EARLY MAY VALUES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KY.
* AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A FROST HEADLINE WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
* WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS ARE FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
IT IS A CHILLY START TO OUR FRIDAY, WITH KY MESONET OBS SHOWING LOW
40S ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE AREA SO FAR. COULD SEE SOME SITES SNEAK
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY LIMIT THAT SOME. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS STRETCHING
FROM ST. LOUIS TO INDIANAPOLIS THIS MORNING, WHICH ARE SLOWLY PUSHING
EAST INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. EXPECT MAJORITY OF THIS LIGHT RAIN
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS DRY AIR EVAPORATES
MOST PRECIP, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 25%) THAT A LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLES COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN IN LATER THIS
MORNING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES MANAGE TO MAKE IT TO THE SFC WILL BE
SO LIGHT THAT NO MORE THAN 0.05" IS EXPECTED. POPS ARE LIMITED TO
ONLY AREAS NORTH OF I-64 DUE TO THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR, AND SOUTH OF
THAT CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY.
OTHER THAN THE LOW END PRECIP CHANCES, THE MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL
BE THE COLD FROPA, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT IN WINDS. CURRENTLY
EXPECT TO SEE THIS WIND SHIFT ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY 12Z, AND
THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 18Z. BEHIND THE FRONT, NW
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP OUR SFC
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE 60S AGAIN TODAY.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. CHILLY TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S FOR
TONIGHT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COOLER
SPOTS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
===== SATURDAY - SUNDAY =====
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A SHARP TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY, PLACING OUR AREA UNDER THE BASE OF THAT TROUGH AXIS.
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY WING WILL LIKELY SWING ACROSS THE AREA,
SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY,
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND PERHAPS INTO A PORTION OF CENTRAL
KY. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND BUOYANCY. HOWEVER,
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RATHER DRY AIR BELOW 850MB, WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN IN, AND LOW 60S
ACROSS KY. THESE FORECAST TEMPS COULD END UP BEING CLOSE TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WITH CLEARING SKYCOVER AND LIGHT WINDS BY SUNDAY MORNING,
COMBINED WITH THE ALREADY COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE, WE HAVE A HIGHER
THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING. BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC TEMPS
DROP INTO THE 30S. AS SUCH, WILL LIKELY NEED A FROST ADVISORY FOR AT
LEAST THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE COMING DAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPS REMAINING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, A
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE WK/BG PKWYS.
===== NEXT WEEK =====
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MONDAY NORTH OF I-
64 WHERE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE.
INCREASING WAA WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RETURNING TO THE 70S ON MONDAY.
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS A BIT MORE ACTIVE FOR NEXT WEEK DUE TO OUR
AREA BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND UPPER
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST. OUR HIGHEST POPS OF THE NEXT WEEK ARRIVE
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WHERE WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHING THROUGH. SOME AI NWP SEVERE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT A LOW-END SEVERE RISK, WITH THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
INDICATING A HIGHLY SHEARED BUT WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS REMAINS QUITE LOW FOR NOW, BUT WILL BE
WATCHING TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
KEEPING EYES ON A WEAKENING LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE TERMINALS TO
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH, WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS
WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE ON THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
TO NORTHWEST FLOW BY 16Z, AND EVENTUALLY A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
BY THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE WINDS BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, VFR PREVAILS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
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