386
FXUS63 KLMK 012355
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
755 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SPOTTY SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE NW WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON SATURDAY.
* AREAS OF FROST SEEMS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS
REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A FROST HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
* WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK.
SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWINGING IN FROM THE
NW. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE COOL IN THE MID 50S TO
THE NORTH AND MID 60S IN THE SOUTH WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING 20-25
MPH, GUSTING HIGHER AT TIMES. WIND GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GUST OUT
OF THE NW FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH PASSING SCATTERED TO BROKEN
SKY COVER. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT
WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER COMING IN FROM OUR
SOUTH. HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL
DETERMINE HOW FAR TEMPERATURES TUMBLE. DUE TO THE THREAT OF POSSIBLE
CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE, AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR PATCHY FROST SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD CLOUDS CLEAR
EARLIER DURING THE NIGHT, EXPANDING THE SPS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. OTHERWISE, EVERYONE COOLS INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S,
COOLEST AREAS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.
BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING, DESPITE THE UNUSUAL CHILLY TEMPERATURES,
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING WHILE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A
SMALL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN NEAR SUNRISE. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH, IT COULD SPIT OUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT WITH
HOW DRY THE AIR WILL BE UPON ITS ARRIVAL, VERY LITTLE IS POSSIBLE.
EVEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE ONLY HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 0.1" OR LESS
IN LATEST REFS/HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ROLL IN AND
BREAK UP DURING THE DAY, EVENTUALLY CLEARING BY SATURDAY EVENING.
HIGHS ARE COOL IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AS WELL. WITH COOL AIR
IN PLACE AND WITH CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
COOL QUICKLY INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR FROST AND
POSSIBLE FREEZES IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COMMUNITIES. GENERALLY,
THESE COMMUNITIES HAVE A 20-40% OF BEING BELOW 32 DEGREES, WITH AREA-
WIDE LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW 30S TO NEAR 40 SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW,
FROST SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE (40-80%) CONSIDERING THE LOW
TEMPERATURES, CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES FOR AMPLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SW FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
PARENT TROUGH KEEPING US COOL THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
AND PUSHING IN WHAT COULD BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY - EARLY
MONDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AHEAD OF THIS
EXPECTED SHORTWAVE, THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING IS STILL POSSIBLE (~30%). SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
MOVING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THE
DAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION WITH
MID-UPPER 60S IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND OFF TO THE WEST. WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A
BIT WARMER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE FLOW WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL ON
MONDAY. A FEW WEAK PERTURBATIONS MAY TRANSVERSE THE REGION AND
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS NORTH OF THE PARKWAYS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY A BIT BY
TUESDAY AS MORE TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND WE GET BACK INTO
A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. BETTER QUALITY MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO
LIFT OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY, BUT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS PLUME BECOMING QUITE NARROW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOOK AT SOUNDINGS SHOWS PLENTY OF SHEAR
GIVEN THE STRONGER FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER,
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION IS WEAK, LIKELY DUE TO A MANIFESTATION
OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. OVERALL, THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SIGNAL HERE IS PRETTY WEAK. AI SEVERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HINT AT A LOW END RISK OF SEVERE, BUT THOSE AI BIASES ARE A BIT HIGH
ESPECIALLY AT LONGER TIME RANGES. FOR NOW, HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. AFTER
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT, A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WEAK WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING,
WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. ANY GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH, VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST AND REMAINING RELATIVELY CALM
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD IN LATE SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH CEILINGS LOWERING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HNB MAY
EXPERIENCE HIGH MVFR CEILINGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME. GUSTS AROUND 14-17 KTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BWG THAT MAY
EXPERIENCE AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BEN
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