551
FXUS63 KLMK 031045
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* AREAS OF FROST THIS MORNING ACROSS MANY AREAS IN SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM EDT.
* HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
* LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S AND NEAR 80.
* WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK.
SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
IT IS A COLD AND CLEAR MORNING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH GOES NIGHT
FOG CHANNEL SHOWING SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY
AFTER THE ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN FROM YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE AREA HAS
DROPPED DOWN INTO THE MID-30S SO FAR, WITH CALM WINDS MAKING IT A
FAVORABLE MORNING FOR WIDESPREAD FROST. THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY
RUNS UNTIL 13Z LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION,
RESULTING IN DEEP NW FLOW AND BRIEF LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGING.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA, AND WILL
INFLUENCE A DRIER DAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY,
WITH TEMPS RANGING IN THE 60S.
BY TONIGHT, ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, LEADING TO A LLJ OVERHEAD THAT WILL INCREASE WAA AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS FORCING WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. PRECIP COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND SOME ELEVATED
STORMS MOVING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS OUR AREA. INITIALLY, VERY DRY AIR
FROM THE SFC UP TO 700MB WILL RESULT IN VIRGA, BUT GRADUAL TOP-DOWN
SATURATION WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO MEASURABLE PRECIP BEING MORE
LIKELY LATER INTO THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE LLJ IN PLACE
WILL PROVIDE QUITE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES, WITH LARGE CURVING
HODOGRAPHS AND LOW LEVEL SRH EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2. FORTUNATELY, DEEP
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL KEEP A STRONG STABLE LAYER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLY HIGH CLOUD BASES GIVEN HOW DEEP
THE DRY LAYER WILL BE. SPC HIGHLIGHTS OUR AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
RISK.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS KY, BUT THEN AN ISOLATED CHANCE SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN IN
FOR THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL NOT SOLVE ANY DROUGHT
ISSUES, WITH THE HREF 24 HOUR QPF ONLY WITH A 35% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 0.15", AND A 15-20% OF EXCEEDING 0.25". QPF IS SO LIGHT
BECAUSE THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FALLING OUT OF QUITE HIGH CLOUD BASES
AND HAVE A LOT FO DRY AIR TO GET THROUGH. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIP
CHANCES, MONDAY WILL FEATURE GUSTY SW WINDS, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP
TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. HREF INDICATES PROB FOR GUSTS OVER 30 MPH IS
MORE FAVORABLE WEST OF I-65, WITH MORE THAN 50%. THESE SW WINDS WILL
FAVOR STRONG WAA, RESULTING IN SFC TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S AND NEAR 80 TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
===== MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT ======
WE'LL BE LOCATED UNDERNEATH BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING, WITH THE
DEEPER PARENT UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SUPPORTING AN EXTENSIVE COLD FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER TO THE MOUNTAIN WEST. WE'LL
BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WITH A
HEALTHY WAA PLUME AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER, BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE RICHER
MOISTURE AXIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA, LEADING TO
OUR PRECIP CHANCES TO MAINLY BE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. DUE TO THE
WAA PATTERN, TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE LLJ AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AXIS TO MOVE BACK OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEEING
INCREASING COVERAGE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO OUR
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
OUR MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED BY THE STRENGTHENING LLJ JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
THOUGH STILL UNCERTAIN ON ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
WE'LL HAVE LOW-LEVEL STABILITY, BUT A RATHER HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DUE TO THE 40-50KT LLJ. THESE WINDS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN THE SFC
DURING THE DAY TOO, RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING, ULTIMATELY SHUTTING OFF ANY LOW-END SEVERE RISK, THOUGH
WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THE DAY. OVERALL, THE NSSL ML SEVERE PROBS HAVE DECREASED FOR
TUE/WED DUE TO LOW-LEVEL STABLE LAYER AND UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF
PRECIP DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
WPC HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE PROLONGED NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA. THE NBM 48 HOUR MEAN ENSEMBLE QPF IS 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN,
WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE A WELCOME SIGHT GIVEN THAT MOST OF KENTUCKY
IS EXPERIENCING AT LEAST MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE
PROBABILITY OF 48 HOUR PRECIP EXCEEDING 1 INCH IS OVER 70%, THOUGH
ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES.
===== THURSDAY - NEXT WEEKEND =====
A FEW MORE SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
VORTICITY WING PINWHEELS AROUND THE UPPER LOW, BUT CHANCES ARE
LIMITED TO LESS THAN 35%. GENERALLY SHOULD SEE A DRIER TREND FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PROCEEDS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR THURSDAY, BUT
SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH NEAR 70.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WE STRUGGLE TO GET CLEAR OF THE UPPER TROUGHING AND
PIVOTING SHORTWAVES PINWHEELING AROUND THE LOW. WHILE IT WON'T BE AS
HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD, AT LEAST AN ISOLATED CHANCE LINGERS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR AND SKC CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG NEAR BWG. EXPECT THIS FOG TO BURN OFF WITHIN AN HOUR OR
TWO AFTER THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR TO
CONTINUE TODAY. BY THIS EVENING, INCREASING CIGS WILL OCCUR,
FOLLOWED BY PROB30 CHANCES FOR -SHRA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR COULD DELAY
ONSET OF PRECIP, BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO BE
OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS BUT BWG.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ023>025-027>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-074>078-081-
082.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ076>079-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
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