286
FXUS63 KLMK 040017
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
817 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S AND NEAR 80.
* MOST ACTIVE PERIOD: TUES-WED NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2" OF
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CURRENTLY,
GIVING DRY, CLEAR SKIES AND MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL HOWEVER RETURN TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PLACING A LLJ OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FORCING WILL DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL IL AND MOVE SE INTO THE AREA BY 05Z. AS THESE SHOWERS
MOVE IN THERE IS A CHANCE (20%) FOR SOME THUNDER, BUT A NIGHTTIME
CAPPING INVERSION WILL ELIMINATE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN IN THROUGH THE DAY, TOMORROW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN THE UPPER 70S TOMORROW AS SW FLOW BRINGS A
WAA ZONE OVER THE AREA. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH
SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 30MPH.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER ONTARIO, BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS SYSTEM WILL FAVOR A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL STRETCH NE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES,
POSITIONING US IN THE WARM SECTOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE SW FLOW,
BRINGING A MOISTURE BAND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE UPPER
50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
===== TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ======
SYNOPTIC SETUP: BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS AS A CLOSED UPPER-LOW MEANDERS OVER THE
HUDSON BAY. THIS SETUP ESTABLISHES A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW,
ADVECTING RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A SFC
COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A WEAK SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS THEN RIDE ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE LLJ OVER THE
AREA AND PROVIDE AMBLE FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE HAVING ROBUST SHEER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ,
MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACT WOULD BE SOME GUSTY SHOWERS IF SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS TAP INTO THE LLJ AND BRING IT TO THE SURFACE.
CURRENT QPF FORECAST BY THURSDAY MORNING GENERALLY FALLS IN THE 1-2"
RANGE. MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 170 PERCENT OF NORMAL TO 1.50". WPC
PLACES THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. GIVEN THE CURRENT D1-D3 DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH OF KY AND 48-HOUR DURATION OF THE
EVENT, THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND OTHER HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS
REMAIN LOW. THE RAINFALL WILL BE MOSTLY BENEFICIAL.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT RAINFALL
FORECAST AS THERE IS STRONG CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE NBM, THE LREF
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES WITH ALL HAVING ABOUT A 60-75 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF GETTING GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF RAINFALL AND AROUND A
10-20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES.
===== THURSDAY - NEXT WEEKEND =====
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED BUT WITH LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HUDSON BAY UPPER-
LOW, WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW, HAVE MAINTAINED A DRIER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY
IN THE GRIDS. WITH A FEW MORE SPOKES OF ENERGY WORKING ALONG THE
BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND, PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES CAN'T BE RULED OUT BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
BRIEF MVFR VIS IN MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. A MID-
LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA TO SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-CENTRAL KY BETWEEN 03-13Z
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME, BUT WE DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SLIGHTLY LOWER VIS IN
PROB30 GROUPS. CEILINGS LOOK TO DIP AS LOW AS 6-9 KFT FOR A
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BETWEEN 05-12Z.
STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BUT MARGINAL
LLWS CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A 35-40 KT SW LLJ. EXPECT A BREEZY MONDAY WITH WIND GUSTS
INCREASING TO 20-25+ KTS AFTER 15Z.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...EBW
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