677
FXUS63 KLMK 170844
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
444 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. SOME DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE
CHALLENGED.
* SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD ARRIVE FOR SOME MONDAY EVENING,
BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
TODAY, WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE AN UPPER TROUGH DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WESTERN STATES AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
SOUTHERN WINDS WILL CONTINUE BLOWING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA, RESULTING IN WAA LIFTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
80S TO NEAR 90 UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
TONIGHT, THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL JUST SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY, LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO FALL WITH THE CONTINUED
WAA. MID 60S TO LOW 70S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR LOWS ACROSS THE CWA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
ON MONDAY, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE
RIDGE ARCHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGIONS, A
COUPLE OF STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A COLD
FRONT, FROM NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO WISCONSIN, WHICH WILL
ADVANCE TOWARDS THE CWA. MOST OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH GUSTY WAA LIFTING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE CWA, BUT BESIDES HEAT, MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.6 TO 2" THROUGH
WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN INDIANA. THIS IS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONT WHERE A SHORTWAVE COULD KICK-OFF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD REACH PARTS OF THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING.
CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE INSTABILITY FADING BY THE TIME THE LINE
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CWA, BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE LINE DISSIPATES.
TUESDAY, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EARLIER ARRIVAL, AS EARLY AS
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, STILL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S,
INSTABILITY COULD REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH INTO THE NIGHT, BUT DEPENDING
ON THE TIME OF ARRIVAL, THE SURFACE COULD BE MORE OR LESS STABLE.
THE FORCING FROM THE FRONT ITSELF COULD OVERCOME THIS STABLE LAYER.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE MID 70S IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LOW TO MID 80S WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
ON THURSDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL (EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ENJOY IT
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCH BACK UP DAY BY DAY INTO THE MID
80S BY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW DURING THIS TIME AS
THE FRONT SITS SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH POSSIBLE OTHER SMALL SYSTEMS
WORKING PAST TO THE NORTH. IT GETS MESSING DURING THE LONG-TERM AND
SHOULD COME INTO BETTER FOCUS AS THE TIME NEARS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A MUCH QUIETER PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS LASTING
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE
COMING HOURS AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW
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