725
FXUS63 KLMK 172358
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
758 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. SOME DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE
CHALLENGED.
* SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD ARRIVE FOR SOME MONDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
* A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
ALONG A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY EVENING. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE LINE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
REGION.
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THE NICE BUT VERY WARM WEATHER WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING TODAY IS
THANKS TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FURTHER BUILDING
OVER OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT, STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEW POINTS AROUND 60 WILL ONLY
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S, WITH SOME
PLACES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.
FOR MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS A ROBUST
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. A FEW
PERTURBATIONS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION WHILE AN MCS FROM WHAT WILL BE THIS EVENING'S SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT OVER THE PLAINS TREKS EASTWARD TOWARDS US. IN ADDITION,
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE CARRIED NORTHWARD OVER OUR REGION, WITH PW
VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5" (~95TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY) AND
DEW POINTS LIFTING INTO THE MID 60S. THE FORCING FROM THE
PERTURBATIONS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WITH A
COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE MCS
WOULD ALLOW IT TO WEAKEN JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH THE MID/UPPER JET
LIFTING IT NORTHWARD OUR OF OUR AREA. WITH MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 80S, WITH SOME PLACES EXCEEDING 90. THE CONTINUED PUSH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S, WHICH COULD THREATEN SOME RECORD WARM
MINIMUMS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
===TUESDAY: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT===
TUESDAY MORNING, BROAD RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER A WARM, MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 80S AND BRUSHING 90 IN SOME SPOTS.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF TEXAS MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION, WHICH WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION MID MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE MIXING AND WARMING, WE WILL SEE STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASED UNINHIBITED CAPE. LOOKING
TO SEE ABOUT 2000J/KG OF SBCAPE. ABOUT 25-30KTS OF SHEAR WILL ALLOW
A FEW STORMS A BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OR CONGEAL, BUT NOT EXPECTING
IMPRESSIVE STORM STRUCTURES. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS, SMALL-
MEDIUM SIZED HAIL, AND LIGHTNING. ADDITIONALLY, PWATS OF 1.7-1.9
INCHES WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. AS A RESULT, BRIEF PONDING
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WITH THIS DAYTIME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, IT MAY DAMPEN THE SEVERE
THREAT IN THE EVENING. THOUGH, THE ENVIRONMENT MAY RECOVER QUICKLY,
GIVEN THE VERY WARM AND MOISTURE AIRMASS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING AND A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. DEPENDING ON TIMING, WILL DETERMINE IF WE
ARE STILL SURFACE BASED. AROUND 0Z TIMING, WE WILL SEE BETTER
ENVIRONMENT FOR ALL HAZARDS. A 30KT LLJ WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER THE REGION AND PROVIDE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. WE WILL ALSO
STILL SEE HIGHER SBCAPE. THE LATER THE LINE ARRIVES, THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE LINE OF STORMS PUSHES EAST, WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO OUTRUN THE BEST FORCING, AND IT WILL DISSIPATE.
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
AREA.
===RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES===
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING A
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A MESSY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO ONE DAY
WILL BE A WASHOUT, BUT SCATTERED CHANCES ARE TO BE EXPECTED. LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN VFR.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH A FAIRLY STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND
BETWEEN 6-8KTS. A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION AND START TO INTRODUCE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS
GROWING CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR HNB LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT SDF TOMORROW EVENING
BUT FOR NOW KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...BTN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page