711
FXUS63 KLMK 191025
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
625 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY. THESE STORMS MAY BRING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
I-65.
* MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ARRIVE LATER THIS WEEK AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GOING INTO
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
AREA RADARS SHOW THAT EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOWER 70S. A FEW MID 70S WERE NOTED DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, GENERALLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSVERSE SOUTHERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
FOR TODAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL START OFF IN A TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE SEEN. WITHIN THIS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED 75-85KT H5 JET STREAK WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WITH A STRETCHED OUT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
COMBINED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS TOUCHING 90 AGAIN. IT WILL
FELL HUMID OUT THERE TODAY AS DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER
60S. THIS COMBINATION OF TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH SBCAPE VALUES RISING INTO THE 2500-
3000 J/KG RANGE. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION, ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20-25KT RANGE
WITH HIGHER VALUES OFF TO OUR WEST. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILE,
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION THAT
MAY BE ABLE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO SMALL LINEAR SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO OUTRUN THE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR AXIS OUT TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS THE
I-65 CORRIDOR AND HEAD INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION. THE HIGHEST RISK
OF SEVERE WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WHERE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. SOME ISOLATED MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES EARLY IN THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
FORCING REMAIN WELL DISPLACE FROM OUR REGION. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY STALL OUT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME DIMINISHING OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT, AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S.
FOR WEDNESDAY, SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW MARGINAL
INSTABILITY (LIKELY LIMITED BY ONGOING CLOUD COVER) AND WEAK SHEAR.
GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER CORES. HOWEVER, GREATER INSTABILITY AND BETTER LAPSE RATES
WILL BE FOUND TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE MID-UPPER 70S
WEST OF I-65 WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EAST OF I-65. LINGERING
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, IT APPEARS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY SINK TO THE SOUTH FOR
THE LMK CWA AND YIELD A SLIGHTLY DRIER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY. BLENDED
POPS LOOK TOO HIGH HERE AND ARE PROBABLY BEING HELP UP BY THE
SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL FIELDS. BEST CHANCES OF ANY
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KY.
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER HERE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
LOOKING INTO THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WITHIN AN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL LEAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE LOOKS FAIRLY
MARGINAL HERE GIVEN POOR LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND THE LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
MOVING INTO THE SAT-MON PERIOD, A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS MOVING
THROUGH WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO EPISODIC
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST AIRMASS THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND, BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL VARY, BUT A SWATH OF 3-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LOOK POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL
GIVEN THE RECENT DRYNESS ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO COME UP THIS MORNING
AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12-15KT
WITH GUSTS OF 20-24KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
COLD FRONT OUT TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL BE ON APPROACH THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. TIMING AMONG THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO
TIGHTEN UP A LITTLE BIT, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS STILL
BELOW NORMAL HERE. FOR NOW, PLAN TO INTRODUCE TSRA AT HNB/SDF AFTER
19/22Z AND THEN OVER INTO LEX AFTER 20/00Z. COVERAGE DOWN SOUTH IS
QUESTIONABLE AND FOR NOW HAVE LEFT PROB30 IN AT BWG, BUT CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP, WE PROBABLY
CAN RUN TSRA AT BWG BETWEEN 19/22-20/02Z OR SO.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
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