850
FXUS63 KLMK 192330
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
730 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A MORE PROMINENT LINE
OF STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. SOUTHERN IN
COUNTIES AND KY COUNTIES THAT BORDER THE OHIO HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL.
* THERE IS FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES.
* ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, KEEPING
CLOUDS AND RAIN FOR EVERYONE AND SCATTERED STORMS FOR EASTERN
LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON.
* BUSY WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MIXED
CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE. A FEW COMMUNITIES HAVE ALREADY SEEN RAIN
TODAY FROM TWO AXIS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRYING TO FORM IN OUR
WESTERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. THE SEVERE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
GUSTY WINDS AREN'T EXPECTED FROM THESE ONGOING STORMS, AT LEAST NOT
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING FROM AN APPROACHING LINE OF STORMS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, WHAT IS POPPING UP ON RADAR STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL HAIL STONES AND GUSTY WINDS BEFORE THE MAIN
EVENT ARRIVES.
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES TROUGHING IN THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED
RIDGING IN THE EAST. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THOUGH WILL BE
CHANGING AS EARLY AS TONIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A SURFACE
LOW UP IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS VERY SLOW, AND
WILL HELP INITIATE A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING.
THIS MORE PROMINENT LINE OF STORMS, PRECEDED BY POP UP STORMS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LINE, WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THERE IS PLENTY OF SBCAPE FOR THIS LINE TO TAP INTO
HOWEVER AS THEY APPROACH AND DEVELOP NEAR OUR CWA, THE BEST SHEAR
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. ONCE
EVENING SITS IN AS THE STORMS MOVE IN, THIS MEANS THEY WILL SLOWLY
BE WEAKENING AS THEY TREK ACROSS OUR COUNTIES. DESPITE THIS, MULTI-
CELL CLUSTERS FORMING INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE
BRINGING SEVERE TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IF SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD GROW TALL ENOUGH. WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING 2500 - 3000
J/KG OR HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN KY, HAIL
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT IS IN SOUTHERN IN AND
INTO KY COUNTIES BORDERING THE OHIO.
ADDITIONALLY, PWAT VALUES ARE RUNNING HIGH RANGING 1.5-2", FAVORED
IN SOUTHERN IN THANKS TO A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SW. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE RUNNING HIGH, MEANING THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE SAME AREAS THAT WERE HIT HARD
LAST NIGHT, NAMELY SOUTHERN IN. AS A RESULT, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDING TRIMBLE
COUNTY AS WELL. OUR WESTERN KY COUNTIES ARE UNDER THE SAME SW PLUME
OF MOISTURE TOO AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. SHOULD
MORE RAIN TREND TO FALL IN THIS AREA, THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GREATEST IN SOUTHERN IN, WESTERN KY
COUNTIES, AND COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO HAVE A 70-80% CHANCE OF
RECEIVING RANGING AROUND 0.5 - 1", WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 2+"
ACCORDING TO HREF LPMM DATA IN TRAINING STORMS. ELSEWHERE IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KY INCLUDING CITIES LIKE LEXINGTON, RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL GENERALLY BY AROUND 0.25-0.5" OR LOWER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THIS EVENING INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH WEAK
WINDS AND LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS. RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE UNTIL A
WEAK DEVELOPING LOW PUSHES UP FROM ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOLLOWING ALONG OUR SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FOR EVERYONE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK
EMBEDDED STORMS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THEN, ESPECIALLY
IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THAT MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING, CONTINUED WAA IN THE EAST, AND
CAPE VALUES NEARING 1000+ J/KG, SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS, THOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER WITH WEDNESDAY'S CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. THIS MAY BUILD UP
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE MORE LIGHTNING
. AS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST, SO WILL ANY RAIN
SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
VARY GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AS CLOUDS AND THE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MARCHES EASTWARD. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO,
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN OUR
SOUTHEAST BORDER COUNTIES. RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS END WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THURSDAY'S WEATHER SEEMS A LITTLE DRIER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN COMMUNITIES BY
MORNING. SINCE THIS FRONT IS STALLING SO CLOSE BY, CONTINUED RAIN
SHOWERS WITH LOW POPS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS, THOUGH RAIN TOTALS LOOK TO REMAIN LOW. CLOUD COVER REMAINS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH, LIMITING OUR WARMING THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S IN A FEW PLACES.
BY FRIDAY, A TROUGH EXITING ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ROCKIES IN
THE MID-PLAINS WILL SWING OUR FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH
A RETURNING SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EFI TABLES SUGGEST
A MODERATELY HIGH EFI VALUES FOR QPF, MEANING THIS INCOMING SURGE OF
MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN FOR DROUGHT STRICKEN
AREAS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE RAINFALL
TOTALS RANGE FROM NEAR 0.5" TO 1" OF RAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
TIMING OF THIS RAINFALL AND WHEN IT ENDS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
STILL, AS IT APPEARS ONCE FRIDAY'S TROUGH CLEARS, THERE IS NOT MUCH
SYNOPTIC FORCING TO SWEEP THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT,
RAIN CHANCES COULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, FURTHER ALLUDED TO BY
MODERATELY HIGH EFI VALUES FOR QPF SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL HIGH
UNCERTAINTY WITH RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEKEND THOUGH AS LREF
CLUSTERING ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH SPREAD IN THE RAINFALL TOTALS. SHOULD
ANOTHER STALLED OUT FRONT FORM OVER KY, MORE RAIN IS LIKELY, BUT IF
THE STALLED OUT FRONT MOVES WELL TO OUR SOUTH, SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BEGIN DRY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS WEEKEND REMAIN WARM IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. STORMS TO THE
WEST ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A LINE AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. ALL SITES HAVE PROB30S FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VRB AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, AND BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY BY TOMORROW. AN OVERCAST SKY WILL REMAIN FOR MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO ROUGHLY 1KFT FROM NW TO SE.
A SECONDARY SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 800FT IS POSSIBLE TEMPORARILY
WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOWER VIS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUD DECKS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ032.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
089>092.
SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...CAL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page