930
FXUS63 KLMK 210535
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
135 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL KY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
* COLD FRONT BRIEFLY DRIES US OUT WITH THURSDAY WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS
NEAR THE TN BORDER.
* BUSY WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS WITH A 30-50% CHANCE FOR CENTRAL KY
TO RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
A SLOW MOVING TRAILING COLD FRONT IS MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER OUR CWA,
ALLOWING FOR A DISTURBANCE TO PUSH IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TODAY.
THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN EASTERN COMMUNITIES. ANY SEVERE
THREAT FROM STORMS THAT FIRE OFF ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUEGRASS
PARKWAY CARRIES A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE OR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A SMALL HAIL RISK, BUT KNOWING THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AREN'T FAVORABLE FOR TALL STORM TOPS, THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE NEAR
ZERO. OTHERWISE, ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE
EAST WHERE SOME SUNSHINE DESTABILIZED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH.
LATER THIS EVENING, OUR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK SE
TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS AND SHIFT LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE N/NE. AS THE
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES, IT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT, WITH RAIN ENDING IN SOUTHERN IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EVERYONE ELSE REMAINS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KY,
WITH 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILES RANGING 0.5 TO MORE THAN 1" IN
TRAINING STORMS WITH COMMUNITIES NORTH OF THE OHIO RANGING 0.25-
0.75". MORNING LOWS WILL BE COOLEST NORTH OF THE OHIO BEHIND THE
FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST.
THURSDAY MORNING, CLOUDS REMAIN THICK OVERHEAD AS MOISTURE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT REMAINS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRIES TO
USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE, BUT MAY ONLY ACT TO BREAK UP
CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ACROSS THE
CWA SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH A LIGHT NE
FLOW. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE WET AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT WON'T BE AN ALL-DAY
WASHOUT EVERY DAY, BUT MULTIPLE BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE FORECAST ACTUALLY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS AND MOVE
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SW FLOW AND A SURGE IN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT (30+ KT LLJ NOSING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY). PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WHICH IS AROUND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 99TH PERCENTILE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AS A
SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS MUTED BY MODEST CAPE AND DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR, BUT STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MI ON
SATURDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT LIKELY STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO EXITS OFF TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST, WITH PW VALUES SETTLING INTO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KY, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO FRIDAY (UP TO 0.1-0.2 INCHES SATURDAY
COMPARED TO 0.75-1.25 INCHES FRIDAY).
IT STILL APPEARS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
TEXAS BY SUNDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY DRIFTING NORTH INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A PERSISTENT PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN THE REGION, ALONG WITH A STALLED OUT SFC BOUNDARY, WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE. A WEAK
MCV WAS NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KY HEADING EASTWARD. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, LOW CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE
RULE. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS
INITIALLY IN THE VFR RANGE DROPPING TO THE MVFR RANGE BY DAWN. LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. WE
SHOULD SEE THE LOWER CIGS START TO RISE BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM....EBW
AVIATION.....MJ
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