848
FXUS63 KLMK 221753
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
153 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
FRIDAY MORNING. BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL CREATE A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE GUSTY WINDS, A SMALL CHANCE OF A TORNADO, AND A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
* EPISODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IS MOVING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY, ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF STATES. THE WARM FRONT OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA SHORTLY
BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING, LIFTING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL, SOMETIMES HEAVY, IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
AND AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
BY THE AFTERNOON, THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
OVER THE OZARKS, WITH A LOW AND MID-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD
OF IT OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WITH PLENTIFUL S/SW FLOW IN PLACE, PW
VALUES WILL RANGE IN THE 1.5-2" RANGE (~99TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY). AS THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH, SOME CLEARING
MAY TAKE PLACE THAT COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING. WITH
THAT SAID, MOST OF THE HEATING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WILL BE
MAINLY ADVECTION DRIVEN FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE, SOME DIURNAL HEATING, AND FORCING FROM THE NEARBY
SURFACE LOW/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
THE SPC HAS PUT CENTRAL KENTUCKY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY, WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND A
POTENTIAL ISOLATED TORNADO. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
DURING PEAK HEATING ARE NEAR 7 C/KM, AND THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
PROFILE IS DECENT, WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES OVER 100 DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ONE OF THE LIMITING FACTORS
DURING THIS EVENT WOULD BE ANY CLOUD COVER THAT LASTS FOLLOWING THE
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, DECREASING ANY POTENTIAL DAYTIME HEATING AND
LIMITING HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE COULD GET.
WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED TODAY, THERE IS THE CONCERN FOR A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT. THE MOST RECENT LREF 6-HOUR LPMM DATA CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT
LOCALIZED AREAS OF 2-4' RAINFALL TOTALS FOR PLACES THAT EXPERIENCE
TRAINING STORMS. GIVEN SOME OF THE RECENT RAINFALL THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED THIS WEEK, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WITH A MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FLOODING THREAT FOR THIS EVENT TO DETERMINE IF ANY ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WATCH LATER TODAY. EVEN WITH
LIMITED DAYLIGHT HEATING, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
GET INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S IN THE AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER QUICKLY
DISSIPATES AS WE NO LONGER HAVE THE SUPPORT OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE BY JUST TO OUR WEST FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY DECREASING AS THE LOW
MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WITH DECENT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE,
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW-TO-MID 60S FORECAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MOVING INTO THE SATURDAY PERIOD, AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN IN/OH DURING
THE DAY. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
PWAT VALUES REMAINING IN THE 1.7-1.8 INCH RANGE. WAVES OF SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WE
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION IN PROGRESS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY WITH A DRIER PERIOD
OF WEATHER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY LOOK TO WARM INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
COOLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S.
FOR SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS WITH A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET PUSHING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WE'LL REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
REMAINS RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER WE'LL HAVE A REMNANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY THAT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
BE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR PROFILES FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. HOWEVER, PWATS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DUMPING QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.
MOVING TO MONDAY, AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER TEXAS LOOKS
TO CLOSE OFF INTO A CUT OFF LOW AND THEN EJECT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.
AS THIS OCCURS, FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CONFLUENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL POOL ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WITH PWATS REMAINING IN THE 1.5-1.75 INCH RANGE.
CURRENT MODELING SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVERALL SHEAR HERE
REMAINS FAIRLY MARGINAL, SO HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
WEATHER HAZARD. GIVEN THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS, WE
COULD SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED HYDRO ISSUES DEVELOP IN THIS TIME
FRAME. HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER HERE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW UNDERGOES A FAIR AMOUNT
OF BLOCKING AND BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. AFOREMENTIONED CUT OFF
LOW OVER TX WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME STUCK OVER THE PLAINS AS
SIGNIFICANT CUTOFF LOWS LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
THE NE US. AN EAST-WEST AXIS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO SET
UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LESSER COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. SOME DRIER CONDITIONS
MAY ENTER THE REGION BY FRIDAY AS THE MODELS WANT TO DIVE THE NE US
TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH MAY PROMOTE MORE RIDGING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TOTAL QPF FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS LOOKS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 3-5 INCHES
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN?OH VALLEYS. SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES NEXT WEEK, AND WILL PUT A
SERIOUS DENT IN THE RECENT DROUGHT STATUS ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
IFR TO LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWERING CEILINGS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTH AS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS BEGIN DEALING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MIXED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THROUGH THE EVENING,
THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH NE AND GENERALLY END IN
LEX/RGA OVERNIGHT. STORMS OR -SHRA WILL CONTINUE IN HNB/SDF/BWG FOR
LONGER PERIODS IN THE TAF. CEILINGS COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WITH THESE SHOWERS AS THEY ROLL THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY,
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT HNB FROM AN
INCOMING CIRCULAR WIND PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
BRINGING IN THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD SEE WINDS
SHIFTING FROM THE S/SE TO THE SW OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN LOWEST IN NW LOCATIONS WHERE HNB
SHOULD DIP TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING. EVENTUALLY CEILINGS
RISE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE DAY. IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE ELSE IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ030-031-034-040-048-
057.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ032-033-035>037-
041>043-049.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ077-078-090>092.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR INZ079.
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BKF
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