534
FXUS63 KLMK 222314
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
714 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND BANDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
THAT BRING A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A SMALL
CHANCE (2%) OF A TORNADO.
* THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THIS EVENING AS SOME
STORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS WITH LOCALIZED RAIN TOTALS
TONIGHT RANGING 2-4+". RAIN SLOWLY WINDS DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* EPISODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXITING OUR NORTHERN AREAS MOVING NE AS
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ROLLING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
EVERYTHING IS MOVING NE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ALONG WITH THE MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS, SMALL
SIZED HAIL, AND A SMALL CHANCE OF A TORNADO (2%). A SURFACE LOW HAS
FORMED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
IS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER MOVING NORTH CREATING THE SCATTERED STORMS
ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL KY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING, THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL PUMP IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS STILL IN THE
1.6 - 2.0" INCH RANGE. WITH THE AID OF DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70, A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ, AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED INSTABILITY,
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, THERE REMAINS A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS. A PRIMARY BAND OF STORMS WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD AND BEGIN TO PIVOT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW CENTER TREKKING IN
OUR NW OVER SOUTHERN IN LATER THIS EVENING. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
FORM ALONG THE OHIO DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE LOW CREATING A CONVERGENCE
ZONE AT THE SURFACE TO HELP MAINTAIN THESE STORMS IN OUR WESTERN KY
AND SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THESE STORMS AND THE LOCATION OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
LATER, A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN.
LATEST HREF 6HR LPMM DATA SUGGESTS LOCALIZED AREAS OF 2-4" OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS, HENCE THE EXPANDED FLOOD WATCH AREA.
WE WILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THESE STORMS AND SHOULD CONCERNS FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING BUILD, ADDITIONAL FLOOD PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.
THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES QUICKLY JUST NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. THE LLJ WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT
HELPING WHATEVER CONVECTION IS LEFT BUT WILL TREND TOWARDS GENERAL
STORMS WITH RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT AND SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
CAPE VALUES ALSO PLUMMET NEAR SUNSET AS WELL, FURTHER SUPPORTING
GENERAL SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE DIMINISHES AS THE
WEAK FRONT FROM THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS SHIFT
OUT OF THE WSW THOUGH PWAT VALUES DROP VERY LITTLE WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE LOW 60S. BY SATURDAY MORNING, SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE EAST ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLOW AND BECOME NEAR STATIONARY, ALLOWING AN
AXIS OF WEAK LIFT WITH OUR MOSITURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE TO SPAWN MORE
SHOWERS OR ADDITIONAL WEAK STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN LOCATIONS
IN OUR CWA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY REMAIN MILD IN THE UPPER 70S.
EVENTUALLY, RAIN SHOULD END FOR EVERYONE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS BY SATURDAY NIGHT HAVE A 75% CHANCE TO BE IN THE 0.75 - 2"
RANGE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS UPWARDS OF 4"
INCHES POSSIBLE WITH REPEATED STORMS THAT TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WEAKENING SFC COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, BUT A DRIER OVERALL AIRMASS
WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS. SPOTTY, LIGHT RAIN CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON.
SUNDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT...
A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING NORTHEAST OVER
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS. SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT LOOKS
RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, BUT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER INFLUX
OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ONLY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE REMNANT BOUNDARY, BUT
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MONDAY - THURSDAY...
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE NORTH FROM TEXAS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEST-
EAST ORIENTED AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE POOLED ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OVER KY AND SOUTHERN IN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. PW VALUES RISE FROM 1.5 INCHES ON MONDAY TO 1.75 INCHES BY
TUESDAY. SLOW-MOVING, PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES.
FORTUNATELY, THE GROUND CAN LIKELY SOAK UP MOST OF THIS WEEKEND'S
RAINS IN CENTRAL KY DUE TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN RECENT WEEKS. WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR OBSERVED RAINFALL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE REGION, PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES AND REDUCED VIS. IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY IFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION. HNB HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
OTHERWISE, WE'LL SEE SFC WINDS SWING AROUND AS A SFC LOW SPINS
THROUGH THE AREA. QUITE VARIABLE DIRECTIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE TREND FOR DRIER WEATHER TOMORROW. COULD
BEGIN TO SEE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS TOMORROW AS WELL,
THOUGH MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST A MVFR STATUS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ030-031-034-040-048-
057.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ032-033-035>037-
041>043-049.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ077-078-090>092.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR INZ079.
SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...CJP
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