968
FXUS63 KLMK 230720
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL THE EVENING.
* EPISODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, WHILE ITS WEAK COLD FRONT
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE (SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS A BULLSEYE OF PW
~1.7"), SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY (50-70%)
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, SO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THEY WERE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
HREF PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER 0.50" OVER THAT AREA
RANGES FROM 25-45%, DROPPING TO LESS THAN 10% FOR HIGHER THAN 1.00"
OF RAINFALL. WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT, AS WELL
AS VERY LIMITED CAA FILLING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL HARDLY BE
IMPACTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FORECAST.
AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT FINALLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST SATURDAY EVENING,
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GET INTO THE LOW 60S, AND
WITH DEW POINTS ALSO IN THE LOW 60S AND RELATIVELY CALM SURFACE
WINDS CURRENTLY EXPECTED, SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN LOWER LYING
AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRETCH OF DRIER CONDITIONS WILL NOT
LAST LONG AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS BEGINS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
OVER TEXAS. BOTH SYSTEMS SEND MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY, THOUGH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT FROM THESE
WAVES IS RATHER MARGINAL. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL PERSISTING DUE
TO AN UPPER-RIDGE JUST OFF OF THE EAST COAST IN THE ATLANTIC, AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE (LREF PW OF ~1.5"). GIVEN THE LIMITED
SYNOPTIC ASCENT, WE ONLY EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP NEAR NORTHERN
KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN INDIANA AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES FROM THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW IN TEXAS MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
REGION. DECENT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT (LREF PW OF 1.5-1.75"), ALLOWING FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OCCUR. THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
IMPORTANT SINCE THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE FALLOFF IN RAINFALL
TOTALS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS OVER THE WEEKEND SINCE THAT WOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE CONUS. MEANWHILE, THE CLOSED MID-
LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD AS WELL.
SHORTWAVES FROM THE MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO FLOW EASTWARD ALONG
THE BOUNDARY, AND WITH THE RICH POOL OF MOISTURE NOW COVERING THE
ENTIRE AREA, MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK. THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ON FRIDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS A BROAD AND ROBUST UPPER-
LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD TOWARDS QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE
WOULD HELP DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD BACK TOWARDS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
FRONT DIVES SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
PRECIP COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED SINCE LAST EVENING, BUT WE STILL HAVE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY,
BOUNCING CIGS ARE LEADING TO A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CATS FOR
NOW. HOWEVER, GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO IFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING, WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH VFR POSSIBLY
RETURNING BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ030>037-
040>043-048-049-057.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR INZ077>079-
090>092.
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...CJP
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