340
FXUS63 KLMK 090015
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
815 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH LOCALIZED AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS KY AND SOUTHERN IN TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 1-2.5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED, LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SWATHS.
* DESPITE SOME MORNING SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS ON WEDNESDAY, HOT
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGINESS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 90-100.
* AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK PROVIDE MORE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SOME STORMS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY, THOUGH TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY
STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE BROUGHT A SWATH OF
HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TO PORTIONS OF LOGAN AND WARREN COUNTIES
WHERE 1.5-3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION,
RAINFALL HAS GENERALLY BE LIGHTER WITH QUARTER TO A HALF INCH BEING
REPORTED.
WHILE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN CONTINUES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WE'LL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTERNOON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV SOUTHWEST OF ST. LOUIS.
TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE, SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
REDEVELOPED WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS HERE SHOW
WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT A STRONGLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH
PWATS UP OVER 2 INCHES. SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO PRETTY WEAK, SO ANY
STRONG STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD MOST LIKELY PRODUCE WET DOWNBURST.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE PWATS ARE ABOVE THE DAILY CLIMO MAX, SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS THAT WILL
RESULT IN EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WITH ANY STORMS
RESULTING IN A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT.
FOR TONIGHT, IT APPEARS THAT WE'LL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV NEAR ST. LOUIS.
CONVECTIVE MODELS DIFFER, BUT THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT A BAND OF CONVECTION WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IL AND THEN MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWEST IN AND NW KY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RECENT HRRR
RUNS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO, THOUGH THE 08/12Z NAM TAKE MUCH OF THIS
PRECIPITATION THROUGH WESTERN KY INTO NORTHWEST TN. MUCH OF THE
BLUEGRASS REGION MAY END UP SEEING LITTLE PRECIPITATION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR TUESDAY, CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT CONVECTION TO ROLL
EASTWARD INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AND/OR BACKBUILDING TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY
GET A BREAK TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LATEST
MPAS RUNS SUGGEST CONVECTION BACKBUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
TRAIN OF CONVECTION SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KY
AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. 08/12Z HREF PMM PROBS SHOW A RAINFALL
MAXIMUM ACROSS OUR WEST-CENTRAL FORECAST AREA (MAINLY ACROSS GRAYSON
AND SOUTHERN HARDIN/NORTHERN HART COUNTIES).
OVERALL, THE FORECAST MESSAGING ON THE HYDRO SIDE HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING. THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 1-2.5 INCHES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE.
HOWEVER, MORE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT AND OUR PARTICULAR SETUP HERE. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH
LOOKS WELL PLACED FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, AN
EASTWARD EXPANSION MAY BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AS THE
CONVECTIVE MODELS GAIN A FOOTHOLD ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT.
OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S IN THE EAST AND
BACK TOWARD THE I-65 CORRIDOR. SOME UPPER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT
BACK TOWARD THE I-165 AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 70S,
HEAT INDICES MAY GET INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN
AREAS THAT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT SUN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WEDNESDAY - SUNDAY ...
AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE
RAIN CLEARS THE CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR AS WELL. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH SW FLOW REMAINING DOMINANT IN THE OHIO VALLEY, WARM
AND MOIST AIR WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IN
ADDITION, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HIT THE UPPER 90S
AND LOW 100S FOR BOTH DAYS. CAUTION WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN AS THIS
HEAT WAVE AFFECTS THE OHIO VALLEY. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN IN THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING 20-25 MPH WINDS GUSTS ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. AMPLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL KEEP
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER CANADA, A COLD FRONT WILL
STRETCH SSW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FRIDAY MORNING THIS COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME, NO SEVERE
THREATS ARE EXPECTED AS THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE REGION LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING NEARING 30 MPH. ANY RAIN THAT PASSES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR DAILY QPF OF AT LEAST 0.5".
PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE 1" AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, HOWEVER
WILL DROP OFF POST PASSAGE. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S (PRIOR TO THE FRONT).
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY LEAVING US
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY, HOWEVER INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL
MOVE BACK IN BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW
PRESSURE IN CANADA THAT WILL STRETCH NW OF KY WILL BRING LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND WILL STAY CONSISTENT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH
DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AS SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT. THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS AFTER 03Z, FIRST OVER BWG AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL DROP TO LOW-MVFR LEVELS AS SHOWERS
BEGIN, PERSISTING UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN HIGHER MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RETURN. WHILE SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE OVERNIGHT AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ023>031-034-038-045-
046-053-054-061>065-070>078-081-082.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR INZ076>078-083-084-
089>092.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CAL
AVIATION...BEN
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