166
FXUS63 KLMK 100159
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
959 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4-7+ INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SWATHS.
* DESPITE MORNING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING, IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING
OCCURS, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY. PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 90-100 DEGREES
ARE POSSIBLE.
* AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK PROVIDE MORE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SOME STORMS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY, THOUGH TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 959 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
LINEAR MCS IS TAKING SHAPE OVER CENTRAL IN WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNINGS. SPC UPDATED THE DAY
1 OUTLOOK AND SCALED BACK THE SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) TO A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1/5). THIS INCLUDES A LARGE PORTION OF OUR SOUTHERN IN
COUNTIES WITH IT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WHILE WE CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE SEVERE THREAT THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS FLASH FLOODING.
PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 2 INCHES AND THESE STORMS ACROSS INDIANA HAVE
HAD A HISTORY OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR RAIN RATE AND A FEW 3.5 INCHES
TO ALMOST 4 INCHES. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST AND
STEADIEST OF CONVECTION REMAINS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN HANDLING THINGS FAIRLY WELL BUT AS OF THE 18Z TO EVEN THE 00Z
THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO SHOW THE MAIN LINE OF ACTIVITY
GOING FROM SCOTT AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN INDIANA TO OLDHAM,
FRANKLIN TO WOODFORD/FAYETTE AND POINTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
DOESN'T MEAN WE CAN'T SEE A SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BUT IT SEEMS THE
TREND IS FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN WHAT WAS THOUGH EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDATED POPS IN THE GRID TO REFLECT CURRENT PRECIPITATION
AND TO LOWER POP FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE I THINK LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-64 AND WEST OF I-65 COULD BE MAINLY DRY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHEASTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION,
WE'RE SEEING SKIES CLEAR OUT A BIT ACROSS WESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
KY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S. WHERE RAIN HAS
BEEN ONGOING, TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE LOW-MID 70S. THIS HAS
PRODUCED NOT ONLY A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, BUT A DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY GRADIENT HAS ALSO BEEN GENERATED. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS POOR BASED ON
MESOANALYSIS AND POINT BASED SOUNDINGS. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
REGENERATED BETWEEN PADUCAH AND BOWLING GREEN AND IS NOT ALL THAT
ORGANIZED. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT, WET DOWNBURSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE HAZARD ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS AREA ALSO
RESIDES IN AN EAST-WEST PWAT AXIS WITH VALUES AROUND 2.1-2.2 INCHES,
WHICH IS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DAILY MAX LOCALLY.
THERE ARE A FEW BOUNDARIES OUT THERE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, AM
NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY THAT MAY
BE IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION
COULD INGEST THIS LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY INTO THE VERTICAL AND RESULT
IN A LOW-END TORNADO RISK. HOWEVER, THIS IS CONDITIONAL BASED ON
HOW THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
IF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CAN GET ESTABLISHED, THEN THE
SEVERE RISK WOULD ALSO INCREASE.
IN THE SHORT TERM, NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING, THE BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION LOOK TO BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HARTFORD, KY (OHIO COUNTY) TO LIBERTY, KY
(CASEY COUNTY). STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE SOME FORWARD
PROPAGATION TO KEEP RESIDENCE TIME SHORT AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE, INTENSE RAINFALL, GUSTY
WINDS, AND LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREATS. SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH THIS AREA OF SOUTHERN KY
DODGED THE EARLIER RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND HAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER FFG
VALUES. NONETHELESS, ISOLATED/SCATTERED HYDRO ISSUES COULD OCCUR
WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.
MOVING INTO TONIGHT, WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR TIME THIS EVENING AS THE SOUTHERN KY CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CONCERNING SIGNAL IN THE CAMS OF
ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING VORT MAX COMING
OUT OF MISSOURI. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE
VARIOUS CAMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TRACK OF THIS MCS. SOME ARE
FAVORING THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA, WHILE OTHERS ARE FAVORING THE
BLUEGRASS REGION. 09/12Z HREF GENERALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND
HAS AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WHILE THE FRONT END OF THE MCS WILL PROBABLY RACE
EAST-SOUTHEAST, MANY OF THE CAMS SHOW THE CLASSIC BACKBUILDING OF
THE MCS TO THE NORTHWEST ON THE HEELS OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
AXIS THAT WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS, WE COULD END UP WITH A SIMILAR SCENARIO AS
WE'VE SEEN THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS MORNING, WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXPANDED
THE FLOOD WATCH TO COVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA AND ALSO EXPANDED
IT IN TIME UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY.
IN TERMS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ANOTHER BASIN AVERAGE OF 1
TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, 09/12Z
HREF PMM SUGGEST LOCALIZED SWATHS OF 4-7+ INCH AMOUNTS COULD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO CENTRAL KY. THIS IS ON TOP OF
THE BASIN WIDE 1-4 INCHES THAT WE'VE SEEN ALREADY TODAY. FFG
GUIDANCE WILL BE A LOT LESS TONIGHT, SO AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES COULD
EASILY LEAD TO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IN SUBSTANTIALLY WET AREAS.
MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WE'RE EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BE IN
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SHOVES THIS
ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH WE'LL CLEAR
TOMORROW LEADS TO SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH WE'LL
WARM UP. IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING OCCURS, WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING
IN THE 70S, THIS WOULD PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS OUT ACROSS THE I-165 CORRIDOR AND WEST
APPROACHING 100. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
LINGERS AND WE HAVE TROUBLE CLEARING OUT, TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WOULD END UP BEING LOWER. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THURSDAY - MONDAY ...
AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GETS PUSHED OFF TO
THE SE, A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE BRINGS LINGERING RAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND BRIEF.
OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ON THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN CANADA WILL MOVE IN A TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING, WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
BRINGING A LINE OF RAIN AND A FEW STORMS. SPC HAS HAS ISSUED A 15-
29% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE BLUEGRASS AREA. THE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR THE
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE LACKING AS THE AXIS IS
DISPLACED TO THE NW.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID 80S FOR
THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. MONDAY
MORNING/ AFTERNOON A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES NE, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY INCREASING PWATS TO 1.5" - 2". A LOW LEVEL JET
STREAK ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER
REGION BRINGING HIGHER WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-35 MPH. THERE COULD BE A
SEVERE THREAT POTENTIAL WILL THIS SYSTEM AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE 40-45 KTS, AND MARGINAL STORM RELATIVE HELICITY.
HOWEVER, THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 803 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL IN LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS COMPLEX FORMS IT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT IN PLACEMENT OF THE
MAIN CONVECTION SHIFTING IT MORE EAST OF I-65 FROM SDF TO LEX TO
RGA. ALSO, THE OTHER CHALLENGE AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON
DURATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOO. ALL OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
THE CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPS AND THEN HOW IT WORKS SOUTHWARD. DO
ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WHERE WE GET
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SDF TO LEX TO RGA BEFORE
BECOMING VFR LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SSE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
089>092.
UPDATE...BTN
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CAL
AVIATION...BTN
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