385
FXUS63 KLMK 101045
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING OCCURS, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF
95-105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
* AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK PROVIDE MORE
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SOME STORMS LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY, THOUGH TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
* AFTER A DRY SATURDAY, AN UNSETTLED AND OVERALL COOLER PATTERN
TAKES HOLD FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE MCV ASSOCIATED WITH LAST EVENING'S THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA HAS NOW PUSHED INTO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO, AND GIVEN THE
LACK OF ANY OUTFLOW FROM THE WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE
BLUEGRASS, REALLY DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL JETTING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS, FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO THE CLOSING WINDOW
FOR ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FLOOD THREAT IS ENDING, AND WILL
CANCEL THE REST OF THE FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR AREA AS A RESULT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
THINGS HAVE BEEN QUIET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SO FAR AS THE
BACKBUILDING MCS OFFERED CONSISTENTLY BY THE CAMS HAS YET TO
MATERIALIZE. WE AREN'T OUT OF THE WOODS YET AS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER OUR NE CWA. THAT BEING SAID,
THE INGREDIENTS FOR DEVELOPMENT EARLIER THIS EVENING WERE SUPPOSED
TO BE FROM THE SUBTLE 30 KNOT W-E LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGING WITH
OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL IN EARLIER THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THAT THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING FOR SEVERAL HOURS, AND
THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET ISN'T GETTING ANY STRONGER DO THINK THE
WINDOW IS CLOSING FOR DEVELOPMENT. PLUS, THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS
MOSTLY WEAKENED SO YOU REALLY DON'T HAVE THE STRONG OUTFLOW ANYMORE
EITHER. HAVE TRIMMED OFF THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLOOD WATCH, AND
WILL CONSIDER MORE TRIMMING OVER THE COMING HOURS AS THE WINDOW
DIMINISHES. DON'T WANT TO BE TOO HASTY THOUGH GIVEN HOW MUCH RAIN
FELL TODAY, AND QUICK REDEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO A RENEWED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT PRETTY QUICK. WILL CAUTIOUSLY TRIM THE FLOOD WATCH
UNTIL WE ARE CERTAIN CONVECTIVE CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED. DID TRIM
THE POPS BACK TO THE NE CONSIDERABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
IF STORMS DO REDEVELOP, THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL STILL
EXISTS. PWATS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.75" - 2" THROUGH THE COLUMN
COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOMEWHAT SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.
ANY BACKBUILDING AGAINST THE SUBTLE LOW LEVEL JET WOULD CREATE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
OUTSIDE OF THAT, A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD THANKS TO
THE MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS. NOTABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS DRYING TREND WITH STEADY SW WINDS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES CONTRIBUTING. LOOKING FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S, ALONG WITH LOW TO MID 70 DEW POINT READINGS. THIS SHOULD YIELD
PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. FARTHER EAST, UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREE PEAK INDICES ARE EXPECTED. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH A HEAT ADVISORY, AND
INSTEAD MESSAGE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND GRAPHICS. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW WELL TEMPS WILL DO TODAY WITH ALL THE
RAINFALL YESTERDAY, AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX STILL
DEVELOPS ARE TOO FACTORS LIMITING CONFIDENCE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
THURSDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
PROGRESSING NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. WE'LL BE MOSTLY DRY AND
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID UNDER THIS SETUP. LOOKING FOR HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE OF 90, AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW AND MID 70S THIS WILL YIELD MAX HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN IN
THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S FOR MOST. POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY
HEADLINE NEEDED HERE, AT LEAST FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
AS SOME SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 105.
MAY HAVE TO CARRY A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.
HOWEVER, WON'T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER AND THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME BIT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 700 MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO OVERCOME.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WE'LL FOCUS OUR ATTENTION UPSTREAM AS A LINEAR
MCS COULD BE APPROACHING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE DATA HAS THIS DEVELOPING A PRETTY
GOOD COLD POOL UPSTREAM, HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES OUR AREA DUE TO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM, AND SURGING INTO THE
LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS (DRIER AND MORE STABLE) FROM THE RETREATING
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. LIKE THE MARGINAL RISK OFFERED BY SPC ACROSS OUR
NORTH FOR WHATEVER WIND IS LEFT OVER FROM THE COLD POOL PUSH IF THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM IS INDEED STRONG. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE REMNANTS OF THE
WEAKENING SYSTEM PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA, ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. EXPECTING A DRYING TREND FROM N TO S THROUGH
THE DAY AS THIS PROGRESSION OCCURS. THIS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAYS' HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO
THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS, AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SATURDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
CONTROLS OUR AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND THE ZONAL UPPER PATTERN
YIELDS NO REMARKABLE FEATURES. THESE DRY CONDITIONS AREN'T EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO OUR AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND WILL START TO STALL AS IT ORIENTS
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SETUP AS
A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DRAWING ON GULF MOISTURE COULD RIDE ALONG
THIS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA, AND BRING MORE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT, UNCERTAINTY GROWS AND
CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON WHETHER THE BOUNDARY STAYS PARKED OVER OR
NEAR OUR REGION, OR WEATHER IT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALLOWS FOR A DRIER
STRETCH GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE FINE DETAILS, BUT
THERE IS DECENT SUPPORT FOR A COOLER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AS BROAD
TROUGHING ENVELOPES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL LIKELY
PUSHED THE STALLED FRONT BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA BY EARLY TO MID
WEEK, BUT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE PARENT TROUGH WILL STILL
KEEP SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S DURING THIS TIME, WITH COMFORTABLE LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID 60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS QUICKLY ENDING
THIS MORNING NEAR LEX/RGA, AND WILL START THEM OFF OPTIMISTIC AND
DRY. IT'S POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT
LEX/RGA UNTIL LATE MORNING, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CARRY FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A STEADY SSW-SW WIND AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH
THE DAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP AROUND 20 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING THANKS TO
THE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, HOWEVER ANY CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL ON
THE VFR SIDE OF THE THRESHOLD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS
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