725
FXUS63 KLMK 110724
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
324 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. PEAK
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 95-105 ARE POSSIBLE.
* AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
* AFTER A DRY SATURDAY, AN UNSETTLED AND OVERALL COOLER PATTERN
TAKES HOLD FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
CURRENTLY, AN MCS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND ILLINOIS AS IT CONTINUES ITS PUSH TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
OVERALL, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND IS KEEPING ITS
STRONGER ACTIVITY MOVING EAST, WELL NORTH OF OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA
COUNTIES. IN THE COMING HOURS, THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
ENTER SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES, BUT WE AREN'T EXPECTING
MUCH BEFORE ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WOULD FADE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BUT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A SURFACE
LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS, SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
FLOWING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. NOT ONLY IS THIS PROVIDING WAA,
BUT IT'S ALSO CARRYING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP LIFT TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S, AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S AND POSSIBLY LOW 100S.
THIS HAS PROMPTED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST EXPECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 95.
TONIGHT, AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOWARDS THE CWA. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY (OR IN OUR CASE NIGHT), WE
EXPECT THIS LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH
THE LOW LEVELS BECOMING MORE STABLE, OUR CHANCE FOR A STRONGER STORM
DROPS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A STRONG STORM REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME
MORE SCATTERED. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD HELP DROP TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR SOME IN SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH MOST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SEEING THE LOW TO MID 70S BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY, BUT WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR MOST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUIDE SYSTEM AFTER SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE BOTTOM OF THE
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE IN OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY, BUT DON'T COUNT ON ANY CAA AS ZONAL
FLOW QUICKLY PUSHES THE HIGH OFF TO THE EAST, RETURNING WAA FOR
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER ONTARIO,
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OZARK
REGIONS TOWARDS THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BEGIN CLIMBING OVER 1.5" BEFORE SOME AREAS IN THE CWA REACH TO
NEAR 2" EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITH THE BEST CHANCES COMING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY. NOT ONLY WILL ANY RAINFALL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES, BUT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN NORTHWEST
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT REDUCTION FROM
SATURDAY'S HIGHS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THE COOLING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT IS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT NEARS HNB AND SDF.
IF THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTS LONGER THAN EXPECTED TAFS WILL HAVE TO BE
AMENDED. BESIDES SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS, SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TODAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW
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