579
FXUS63 KLMK 120549
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
149 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY REGENERATE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT BEING LOW.
* ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM
CARRIES A LOW, BUT NON-ZERO THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
* MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE, WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL IL/MO ALONG A COLD FRONT. A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF
THESE STORMS, WITH 3000+ J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
IL/IN. HOWEVER, THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY
WILL NOW GRADUALLY STABILIZE POST-SUNSET. RECENT SDF ACARS SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 700 MB.
DESPITE MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z TONIGHT WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE DOES NOT APPEAR
CONDUCIVE TO MCS MAINTENANCE INTO SOUTHERN IN AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
KY. AND WITH THE SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL
ALSO BE MUCH WEAKER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST-SAGGING PORTION OF THE LINE
(WHICH SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT BY MIDNIGHT AND
BEYOND).
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN KY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE RISK ACROSS THESE AREAS WOULD BE LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS DUE TO ELEVATED LCLS AND DCAPE. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW WITH CONVECTION STEADILY WEAKENING BY THE
TIME IT ARRIVES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
ACROSS THE REGION, IT IS ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AS OF 19Z. THE LAST OF
THE LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY IS DISSIPATING AT
THIS TIME, WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NW, THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
PRODUCE BREEZY SW WINDS TODAY, SOMEWHAT MITIGATING THE EFFECTS OF
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. STILL, HEAT INDICES AT THIS HOUR ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S, WITH SOME LOW 100S BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECT CONTINUING HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE DIURNAL CU FIELD
BEGINS TO DIMINISH. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-65; HOWEVER, A WELL-DEFINED TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE LACKING UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
BY THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING, A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STABILIZE
AS USUAL AFTER SUNSET, SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD STILL BE
AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO
ROLL IN AROUND MIDNIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OUTRUN THE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WITH
STRONGER LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ALSO EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT, WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES I-65, WITH MANY AREAS EAST OF I-65 SEEING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AS STORMS ARE WEAKENING,
A LOW, BUT NON-ZERO THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD,
WITH MANY AREAS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW, THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA, WITH ITS PROGRESS SLOWING AS IT
MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KY. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 60S AND UPPER 50S WILL CURTAIL THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY REGENERATION OF STORMS, SO HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT
MAKES IT WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR WHERE STORM CHANCES ARE TOMORROW. WITH
THE LATEST RUN OF HI-RES GUIDANCE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO
BOWLING GREEN. THESE LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA WOULD HAVE A
BRIEF WINDOW TO SEE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS BEGIN AND POST-FRONTAL SINKING MOTION MOVES IN. OTHERWISE,
TOMORROW SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR MANY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 80S AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S, WITH HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
WHILE FAIRLY ZONAL MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY, MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE,
A RESURGENCE OF GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED, THOUGH GUIDANCE IS STILL
SPLIT ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE WEEKEND DISTURBANCE WILL BE. A STRONGER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WOULD BRING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND IF
INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT, A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IN GENERAL, THE ECMWF/NAM TEND TOWARD A STRONGER
SOLUTION, WHILE THE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED. AI SEVERE CONVECTION
GUIDANCE BASED ON THE ECMWF INITIAL CONDITIONS DOES HAVE AN ELEVATED
SEVERE RISK SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, SO THIS IS SOMETHING WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. FORTUNATELY, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
LIMIT THE FLOODING THREAT, WITH MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BETWEEN 0.25-0.75".
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY, SETTING UP WHAT SHOULD BE A COOLER
AND DRIER PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL REMAIN THERE OVER THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH SURFACE RIDGING FILLING IN OVER OUR REGION AS
SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT, ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY PLEASANT START TO
THE WORKWEEK. MORNING LOWS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR OR
BELOW 60, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S ON MONDAY AND IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA, PW VALUES WILL BE ON THE
LOWER SIDE, WITH LREF OUTPUTTING VALUES OF 1.00" OR LESS. A FEW
PERIODS OF RAIN CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES (~15% MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY).
THE NEXT POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAINMAKER WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
COMES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN AND MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS.
CURRENT LREF GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW MOVING OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN,
WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS BECOME COLD POOL DOMINANT, SURGING OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WILL ARRIVE AT SDF WITHIN A COUPLE OF
HOURS. WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SWITCH TOWARDS THE NORTH AS
THEY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. HNB WILL ALSO SEE THIS LINE, BUT THAT
SITE REMAINS CLOSER TO ACTIVE CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HNB CAN EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AND MAYBE A GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE ON TO
LEX AND RGA AS IT WEAKENS. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE BWG
COULD SEE ANYTHING FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE LINE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...KDW
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