839
FXUS63 KLMK 121123
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
723 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
* MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
ARRIVING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, A LINE OF DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS IS
APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. DIRECTLY NORTH OF
THE CWA, MOST OF THE LIGHTNING HAS ENDED AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
QUICKLY DIVING SOUTH, AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION. THE STRONGER PART OF
THE LINE REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE CWA, LYING IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. THIS PART OF THE LINE HAS ITS CONVECTION
LOCATED CLOSER TO THE OUTFLOW, BUT THIS AREA IS ALSO SEEING
WEAKENING. AHEAD OF THE STORM, MLCAPE VALUES CONTINUE TO FALL WITH
INCREASING CIN. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN A LITTLE BETTER WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65, BUT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STABLE OVER THE
WHOLE AREA. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A GUST AS WINDS
SWITCH TOWARDS THE NORTH, BUT ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
UNLIKELY.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WORKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF ANY RAINFALL
SHOULD EXIT THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT, MANY AREAS WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT DEW POINTS
WILL FEEL BETTER AS THEY FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
BEHIND THE FRONT.
TONIGHT, ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH EAST OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH, BUT WILL
VEER TOWARDS THE EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS, SOME RADIATIVE COOLING WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SATURDAY, IS EXPECTED TO BE A NICE DAY THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST BY ZONAL FLOW. THE DAY WILL START OFF SUNNY AS SOUTH WINDS
HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
TO OUR NORTH IN ONTARIO, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
EAST AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OZARK REGIONS TOWARDS THE CWA. SOUTHERN WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5-2" SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR HOW
THIS WILL AFFECT THE CWA. ONE OPTION HAS AN MCS FORMING AND PUSHING
EAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY SATURDAY EVENING.
IF THIS HAPPENS, THE WORST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEST OF
US, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY CONTINUING INTO
OUR CWA. SHEAR LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK OVERALL, BUT IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS
OUT, WE COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AS A LARGE BOWING SEGMENT
MOVES EAST INTO OUR REGION AS IT WEAKENS.
THE OTHER SCENARIO WOULD KEEP SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT LESS ACTIVE AND
WOULD MOVE THE MAIN SHOW OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SUNDAY,
MOVING THROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IF THIS PLAYS OUT, THE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS LESS UNSTABLE AND LESS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER.
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN CAA.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT REDUCTION FROM SATURDAY'S
HIGHS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THE COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID 70S ON MONDAY. DAILY WARMING
WILL LIFT HIGHS BACK TO THE MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, LEX AND RGA CAN
EXPECT TO SEE A PASSING THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY QUICKLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FOR A FEW MINUTES BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR
LEVELS. BEHIND THE FRONT, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CLEAR,
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE THE TAF PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW
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