821
FXUS63 KLMK 131110
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
710 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
* COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
* ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WITH ZONAL FLOW ABOVE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AREA OF FOG THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. AFTER SUNRISE, ANY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATE, LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS EAST OVER
ONTARIO, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE OZARKS TOWARDS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTHERN
WINDS WILL HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.6" AND IN SOME
AREAS REACHING 2-2.25". SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A POSSIBLE
MCS DEVELOPING OVER MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT CONTINUES EAST INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY (DEW
POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S) IN PLACE, MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 1,800 TO 2,800 J/KG AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
CONVECTION, WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT TO STRONG
TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINING LIMITED. ANY HAIL WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MELTING AS IT
FALLS. THE HIGH PWATS WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY ALSO POINT TO HIGH
RAINFALL RATES BEING POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING AS THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY, BUT ANY TRAINING OR SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING CONCERNS. THE EARLY CONVECTION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME MORE ELEVATED AS IT CONTINUES EAST.
AFTER THE INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION PASSES THROUGH THE CWA, THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK BEFORE THE CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY THIS TIME, MOST OF THIS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH MUCH LESS INSTABILITY. THE CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SECOND WAVE LOOKS LOW. MOST
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SUNDAY, THE BULK OF THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO
AN END DURING THE MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SKIES WILL
TRY TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. CAA ON NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLIGHTLY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEAR THE CWA AS
THE UPPER LOW THE TROUGH IS CONNECTED TO SITS AND SPINS OVER
ONTARIO. THIS PUSHES A SURFACE HIGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY. CAA ON MONDAY LIMITS HIGHS TO THE MID 70S IN MOST
PLACES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, SO IT'S GOING TO FEEL
COOLER THROUGHOUT THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT, RESULTING
IN RETURN FLOW FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS BEGIN TO WARM SLIGHTLY, BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON TUESDAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S BY
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, LOOKS TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST
ORIENTED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON TIMING. INSTABILITY REMAINS UNKNOWN AS A
NIGHTTIME ARRIVE WOULD BE MORE STABLE THAN AN DAYTIME ARRIVE, BUT
REGARDLESS OF TIME OF ARRIVE, THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPEARS TO HAVE
A LOT OF WIND ENERGY, INCREASING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. FOR NOW, IT'S
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ONE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WITH THE SUN UP, AREA FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MOST OF THE DAY
WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AFTER 0Z. AT FIRST
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN VFR LEVELS, BUT INTO THE
NIGHT, REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED AS MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW
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