611
FXUS63 KLMK 141658
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1258 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES...
* TODAY, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER ISN'T EXPECTED.
* COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
* ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS,
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CURRENTLY, SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS A STABLE LAYER WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY MORNING. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KENTUCKY, BUT NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
AROUND MIDDAY, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, THE
INCREASED FORCING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. WITH
THE MID-LEVELS REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM AND CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING
SURFACE WARMING, INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED, REDUCING
ANY SEVERE THREAT. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEARLY 20 MPH WILL
VEER TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, SKIES WILL BEGIN QUICKLY CLEARING FROM
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. CAA WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST PLACES. SOME AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY, INCLUDING BOWLING GREEN, MAY ONLY DROP TO THE LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY CONDITION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE A BIT BY LATE TUESDAY, AND ESPECIALLY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. A SEASONABLY STRONG JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED PV
ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY,
QUICKLY SLIDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WILL BRING SOME UPPER 60S/LOW 70S INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE CERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS IT WILL BRING IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WIND FIELDS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT, AND IF MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORMS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD THE FRONT. SURFACE WARM SECTOR WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
QUITE VEERED, MAKING SHEAR PROFILES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL (ALTHOUGH
SPEED SHEAR COULD BE QUITE STRONG). MORE DETAILS WILL COME ON THIS,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN SEVERE WEATHER SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, SUPPORTED BY CONTINUALLY INCREASING
AI GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES AND AN IMPRESSIVELY DEEP
LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM (THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX
FOR LOWEST PRESSURE) FOR MID-JUNE.
THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION ON FRIDAY, SO ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KY ON FRIDAY. BUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD IN
BRINGING A TRANQUIL START TO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY STARTING TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL KY AND
MOVE NE. BEHIND THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING
THROUGH CENTRAL IN THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CLOUD
BASES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LINE, AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED VIS IS POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. WIND GUST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
UNTIL WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS THEY SHIFT TO NNW ORIENTATION BY TOMORROW. SKIES
WILL ALSO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WHILE SOME AREAS MAY EVEN SEE
PARTIAL CLEARING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KD
AVIATION...CAL
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