881
FXUS63 KLMK 151711
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
111 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.
* TUESDAY NIGHT, NON-SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
* WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS (IN AND OUT OF THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
TODAY, WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH RUNNING NEAR THE CWA,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS, WILL CONTINUE TO
GET PUSHED OUR DIRECTION. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS IN
PLACE, LIMITING HIGHS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. SKIES START OFF THE
DAY MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT CUMULUS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
TONIGHT, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION, WINDS
WILL GO NEAR CALM. REMAINING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP
LIMITING RADIATIVE COOLING, BUT LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE 50S. AS THE HIGH PASSES, WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
TUESDAY, THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ALMOST ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REGION
WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST, AWAY FROM THE
CWA. LIGHT WAA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL LIFT TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, A WEAK SURFACE LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT'S TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
TO THE NORTH OVER INDIANA WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WORKING THROUGH KENTUCKY. SEVERE WEATHER ISN'T EXPECT.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE CWA STILL SITTING UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH,
REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DIVES TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, THE
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WAA THROUGHOUT
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LIFT HIGHS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S AS DEW POINTS BEGIN LIFTING FROM AROUND 60 INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AS THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW
GETS EJECTED THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IT WILL DRAG ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH THE CWA AND ITS DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW 70S. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE PARALLEL TO THE OHIO RIVER,
IT COULD TAKE THE FRONT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THERE IS CURRENTLY VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM, AND IF THE SYSTEM COMES THROUGH AT NIGHT, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE REDUCING SEVERE
CHANCES. IT STILL APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE NORTH OF THE CWA, CLOSER TO THE LOW, BUT WITH A LOW THIS STRONG,
EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN GRADIENT WINDS AS WELL AS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOME SURFACE WINDS COULD BE
BACKED WHICH COULD ADD TO A TORNADO THREAT, BUT CLOSER TO THE FRONT
WINDS BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL, LOWERING THE THREAT. THE STORM'S
ARRIVAL IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT DETAILS WILL COME INTO BETTER
FOCUS, BUT WOULD PLAN ON GUSTY WINDS BEING LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
BEHIND THE FRONT, CAA RETURNS WITH A TRAILING SURFACE HIGH DIVING
TOWARDS THE OZARKS. THIS WILL BUMP HIGHS BACK TO AROUND 80 DEGREES
AND PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING OVER THE AREA, AND
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY VFR. SITES MAY SEE FEW050 THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AHEAD OF RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS WILL GO CALM FOR MOST
SITES TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW WITH SOME LOW END GUSTS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...CAL
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