142
FXUS63 KLMK 160515
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
115 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..UPDATED AVIATON DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
* WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN IN. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS (IN AND OUT OF THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
TONIGHT, AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST WINDS WILL BECOME
VERY LIGHT IF NOT CALM IN SOME LOCATIONS. PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, HOWEVER SOME MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
COULD LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA LIMITING THE COOLING.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S.
TOMORROW, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NW.
A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES BETWEEN 20Z AND
22Z. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY IS VERY LOW AND
SHEAR IS MARGINAL. PWATS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, HOWEVER SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE AS DRIER AIR HOLDS ON IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 20-25 MPH WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MID-TO-LATE WEEK PERIOD AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER WAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA, WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE WESTERN ONE-THIRD OF
THE US. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, A 120+ KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
WITHIN NW FLOW WILL EJECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE
MEAN MSLP FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR THE MINIMUM OF MODEL CLIMATOLOGY, WITH
MANY PROGS SHOWING A CENTRAL PRESSURE BELOW 990 MB.
AS THE SFC LOW STRENGTHENS TO THE NW OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, S/SW FLOW SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING
GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS. THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S. GUSTY WINDS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND WE MAY BE
SAVED FROM ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL BL INVERSION. STILL, WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, WITH
STORMS LIKELY LINING UP ALONG A TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN MO/CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL IN. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NOT
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD MUCH IF AT ALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE SFC
COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE SLOW IN ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT, AND IT WILL
LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME FOR STORMS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN IN
COUNTIES AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION WILL OTHERWISE BE LACKING. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN IN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. BY THIS POINT, INSTABILITY WILL
HAVE DECREASED DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING; HOWEVER, WITH AN
850 MB JET EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM STRENGTH
(50-55 KT), WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG. THE LONGER
THAT STORMS TAKE TO REACH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, THE LOWER THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK WILL BE. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPH,
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT; HOWEVER, WOULD STILL EXPECT DAMAGING
WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS; HOWEVER, DECREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE NORTHEAST US. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OUT,
WIND SHEAR SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST, SO WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, THE
MAIN ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTION THREAT WILL BE PULLING OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. A SECONDARY UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE TN VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE QUASI-STATIONARY SFC FRONT AND THE INCOMING TROPICAL WAVE,
ENHANCED RAINFALL TOTALS AND A HIGHER FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES IS EXPECTED TO EJECT
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON FRIDAY, WITH NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO PUSH
RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE SFC COLD FRONT FINALLY SINKS TO THE SOUTH, COOLER, BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
FRIDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY NIGHT...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, NW MID- AND UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVING EAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THE
PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD COMBINE
WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS TO BRING A LARGELY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE
MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, A PIECE OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY
EJECTING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL START TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS, WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE
AGAIN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO INCREASE TOWARD
CLIMO NORMALS BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKEWISE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY FAVORED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, IT IS TOO SOON TO SAY WHAT
KIND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORM RISK WILL EXIST WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
MUCH OF ANY IMPACT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
WITH SFC WINDS FROM THE SW. SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THERE IS A PROB30 FOR
LIGHT RAIN AT SDF AND LEX. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FOR BWG, SO
THEIR FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR NOW.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...CJP
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