550
FXUS63 KLMK 162351
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
751 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
* WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN IN. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS (IN AND OUT OF THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED.
* EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY ON
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
FOR MOST ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN, IT IS ANOTHER DRY AND
COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. A FEW AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL KY DID SEE
BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO GENERATE TALL ENOUGH DIURNAL CU FOR
SHALLOW PRECIPITATION CORES TO DEVELOP. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION, A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH AN AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO SOUTHERN IN AT THIS HOUR.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WHILE THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OUTRUN
THE POOL OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA,
CAUSING STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH SOUTHERN IN. A COUPLE
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE OVER
SOUTHERN IN. BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA-
WIDE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS WHICH RECEIVE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND CLEAR OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS THE HOOSIER NF AND POINTS WEST IN IN.
OTHERWISE, LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD REACH THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TOMORROW, AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RESPONSE SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE
FORM OF A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WITH HI-RES PROGS
CONTINUING TO SHOW A NEAR- OR SUB-990 MB SFC LOW OVER THE LOWER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD LEAD TO
WARM RETURN FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SENDING
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROGS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
NOCTURNAL BL STABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST MOMENTUM ALOFT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT; HOWEVER, WITH THE LLJ POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 60
KNOTS (!), ANY MIXING WHATSOEVER COULD BRING 35-45 MPH WIND GUSTS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CONSIDERED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING; HOWEVER,
CURRENT MOST LIKELY WIND GUSTS ARE MARGINAL FOR REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HI-RES TRENDS TONIGHT. LONG
STORY SHORT, IT WILL BE UNUSUALLY WINDY OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT VALUES OUTSIDE OF CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM
REANALYSIS (CFSR) CLIMATOLOGY WILL BRING AN IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF
MOISTURE INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS, INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SW OF THE STRENGTHENING SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MO/IL/IN LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH STORMS APPROACHING
SOUTHERN IN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING. AS STORMS APPROACH
THE AREA, WIND SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG, ESPECIALLY FOR MID JUNE,
AS HREF MEAN 0-6KM SHEAR SHOULD BE AROUND 50 KNOTS AS STORMS
APPROACH THE AREA. INSTABILITY, WHILE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE
SPRING/EARLY SUMMER ACROSS THE AREA, SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HREF SBCAPE PROGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS ARE
CONCERNED SHOULD BE FORCING, AS THE MAIN AREA OF MID- AND UPPER-
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND THE STRONGEST FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE UNUSUALLY POTENT COMBINATION OF THE
OTHER SEVERE INGREDIENTS AND THE ROBUST WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL MEAN
THE ANY CONVECTION OF MODESTLY SUFFICIENT STRENGTH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA IS MORE UNCERTAIN, AS INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL DEEP-LAYER AND 0-3 KM SHEAR RELATIVE TO THE ORGANIZED LINE
OF CONVECTION WILL MAKE MESOVORTEX DEVELOPMENT INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY
AS STORMS APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER. THE MAIN TIME WINDOW FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO BE THE MIDNIGHT-SUNRISE PERIOD
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE AND CONSISTENCY IN
SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE ON TIMING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
===== THURSDAY - FRIDAY =====
THURSDAY MORNING, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS
THE CWA, WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY-
TO-MID MORNING HOURS DURING THE DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONGER FORCING FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL JET
CORE IS EXPECTED TO BE PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, ALTHOUGH GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE
THERE WOULD BE A RESIDUAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS, SEVERE PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE AT A MINIMUM DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO SLOW DOWN AS IT PUSHES
TOWARD CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KY.
WHERE THIS FRONT ENDS UP BY PEAK HEATING THURSDAY WILL BE CRITICAL
FOR WHERE THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MLCAPE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.8" (>90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMO)
REPRESENTATIVE OF A MOIST, MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE
THE WIND FIELD NEAR THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY, THERE SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. GIVEN A
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER-LOADED
STORMS, WOULD EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE THING WE'LL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION, AS MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY ORIENT SOMEWHAT PERPENDICULAR TO
THE QUASI-STATIONARY SFC FRONT, ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, PROVIDING ENOUGH OF A
SOUTHWARD PUSH IN THE SFC COLD FRONT TO SEND THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES OUT OF SOUTHERN KY. DRIER WEATHER AND COOL NW FLOW
SHOULD SPILL INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED
FROM NW TO SE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL, WITH MOST
AREAS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
===== FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT =====
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC WILL WORK ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS,
BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST CONUS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
AS ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST US. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST, A SFC
LOW IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES SHOULD EJECT ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS REMAINS
LOW THIS FAR OUT, THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN AI/ML FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS FAVORED BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT DESPITE SOME
REMNANT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER LEX/RGA. ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS CEILINGS FROM PERIODS OF
BKN COVER WILL REMAIN AT VFR HEIGHTS. HNB MIGHT EXPERIENCE FOG JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL BE MONITORED AS MORNING APPROACHES. S/SW
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WHOLE TAF PERIOD INCREASING QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE FOR ALL AIRPORTS. S/SW GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS IN THE
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON FROM A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN. PROB30 FOR STORMS WAS INCLUDED FOR SDF NEAR
06Z THURSDAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AND WE ARE MONITORING AN
ADDITIONAL LLWS THREAT FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...BKF
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