825
FXUS63 KLMK 171741
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
141 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* GRADIENT WIND GUSTS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. NON-
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT.
* AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT IS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, BUT WE COULD SEE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WK/BG PKWYS OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD POSSIBLE, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A TORNADO
OR HAIL RISK EITHER.
* THE COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION, LEADING TO ADDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY ON THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 901 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
STILL EXPECTING A DRY AND GUSTY DAYTIME ACROSS THE CWA. MOST OF THE
PEAK GUSTS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE, BUT DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS FOR A FEW GUSTS OVER 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NW CWA WHERE THE LLJ CORE STARTS TO RAMP UP IN THE 18-00Z
TIMEFRAME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS, AND WILL STILL
CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY IF IT LOOKS LIKE MORE WIDESPREAD 40+ MPH
WINDS MIGHT GET GOING.
ALSO MONITORING THE UPSTREAM MCS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY HAS A NICE BOWING SEGMENT AND COLD POOL PUSH
NEAR DAVENPORT, IA, AND ALSO A SEPARATE BOWING SEGMENT TRAVELING SE
TOWARD CENTRAL IL. EXPECT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MCS IS
GOING TO STEADILY WEAKEN, AND THAT THE EASTERN BOWING SEGMENT WILL
BECOME MORE DOMINANT THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM
TO BE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL, AND HAVE THIS FEATURE PUSHING E TO
ESE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL, AND INTO NW INDIANA THROUGH THE DAY.
LOOKING AT THE MEAN 850-300MB WINDS AT DUE W-E, THIS LOOKS TO BE A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION. ALWAYS HAVE TO BE MINDFUL OF AN MCS DIVING SE
INTO THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT, BUT FOR THE MOMENT, THE COLD POOL
PUSH SEEMS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE INSTABILITY SO NOT SURE THAT WILL
HAPPEN WITH THIS PARTICULAR MCS EVOLUTION. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS
THAT THE CURRENT SOUTHERN PUSH COULD EVENTUALLY CATCH ONTO THE NEW
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND REINVIGORATE, BUT RIGHT NOW THAT
SEEMS THE LESS LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE LESS FAVORABLE W-E 850-
300MB MEAN WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE, AND UPDATE
IF A DIFFERENT EVOLUTION OCCURS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
A BUSY WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH
MULTIPLE HAZARDS TO DISCUSS. WE'LL BREAK THEM DOWN PIECE BY PIECE
BELOW.
===== OVERVIEW AND ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS =====
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN TODAY AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW DROPPING TO AROUND 990
MB BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRAIL AN EXTENSIVE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST, AND A WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE TRIPLE POINT REGION OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IL,
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THAT TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE IN OUR AREA BY LATE TONIGHT, AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND NEARLY STALL ACROSS KY TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS FRONT PLACEMENT AND TIMING WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TWO ROUNDS OF
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH ROUND 1 POSSIBLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND ROUND 2 REDEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BASED OFF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES
(ESAT), THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SIGNALS ALIGNING TO SHOW THE RARITY OF A
SFC LOW THIS STRONG FOR MID-JUNE. SEVERAL PARAMETERS FORECASTED IN
THE ENSEMBLES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ARE OUTSIDE THE CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS (CFSR) DATABASE FROM 1979-2009,
INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO BE QUITE REMARKABLE. FOR EXAMPLE, THE
ECMWF MSLP FORECASTED IS BELOW ALL OTHER MSLP VALUES IN THE CFSR
DATABASE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE 850MB JET IS NOTED
FOR EITHER BEING STRONG ENOUGH THAT WE SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR LESS
THAN 1 DAY EVERY 10 YEARS OR WILL BE OUTSIDE THE CFSR DATABASE AS
WELL. A LLJ OF 50-60KTS WILL PULL AN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FETCH INTO
THE REGION, WITH THE IVT FORECASTS ALSO EXCEEDING THE CFSR DATABASE.
THIS TRANSLATES TO AN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FETCH ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES.
===== STRONG GRADIENT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED =====
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS THROUGHOUT TODAY, THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN, LEADING TO INCREASING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME QUITE STEEP THIS AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING
DEEPER MIXING OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH LATER TODAY, WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE. DEBATED THIS MORNING ABOUT
THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY, BUT COLLABORATED A SPS FOR NOW. THIS
DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY BEING ISSUED LATER
TODAY. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE UNUSUALLY WINDY FOR MID-JUNE. WIND
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL, BOTH IN AND
OUT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY, RAMPING UP WAA PATTERN AND
SUPPORTING TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 80S SOUTH OF I-64 TODAY.
===== SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT =====
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL ACROSS MO/IL/IN BEHIND THE DEEPENING SFC
LOW TODAY, AND WILL BE THE FOCUS AREA FOR STORMS TO FIRE UP ALONG
AND/OR AHEAD THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE
INITIAL CONVECTION MAY BE MORE DISCRETE ACROSS MO/IL, HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL CONGEAL INTO MORE OF A LINEAR
COMPONENT BY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE I-70
CORRIDOR.
FROM THERE, WE EXPECT TO SEE A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
APPROACH OUR SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, FROM THE NNW. HREF MEAN 0-1KM SRH INCREASES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES TONIGHT, WITH VALUES NEAR 300 M2/S2 POSSIBLE AS THE LLJ
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES OUR SHEAR PROFILES. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, HREF SBCAPE VALUES 750-1000 J/KG
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN IN TONIGHT, WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE LINE OF STORMS SLIDES
SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN, BUT THERE REMAINS A TORNADO RISK AS WELL. HOWEVER, AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AROUND
THE TORNADO POTENTIAL CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER AND SOUTHWARD AS THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTIVE LINE/COLD
FRONT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SRH AND OVERALL SHEAR, CAN'T RULE IT OUT,
ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY LOCALIZED KINKS IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE
THAT CAN CHANGE THE ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTORS.
AS FOR TIMING, GENERALLY EXPECT SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN 1-3AM EDT
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, AND 4-7AM EDT FROM THE OHIO RIVER TO THE
WK/BG PKWYS. WE'LL LIKELY SEE THE LINE DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE PKWYS TOMORROW MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWS
ITS PROGRESSION, WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE MARGINAL RISK.
===== ADDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW =====
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL KY
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT NEARLY COMES TO A STOP
OVER THE AREA. THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT BY PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY
WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE THE GREATEST SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL BE. THE STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SLIDING
EAST OF THE AREA, BUT STILL EXPECT PWATS TO BE QUITE HIGH. ALONG AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR, WITH THE HREF MEAN SBCAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL KY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE LLJ WILL BE MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST, LEADING TO WEAKER SHEAR PROFILES, BUT STILL EXPECT
ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO POSE A
DAMAGING WIND RISK. FORTUNATELY THE SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL, WHICH WILL INHIBIT A TORNADO RISK FOR THURSDAY.
===== EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL =====
SOUTH-CENTRAL KY WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A TROPICAL
AIRMASS, WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RUNNING
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT TO SUPPORT BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS AND
TRAINING OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS SET UP COULD LEAD TO SOME FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE WK/BG PKWYS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
===== FRIDAY - SATURDAY=====
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY,
LEADING TO A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
COOLER NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION, AND WE'LL GRADUALLY SEE
CLOUD COVER DECREASE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER AS WE
GET INTO A DEEPER RETURN FLOW AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
EAST, SO WE'LL LIKELY SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST.
===== SUNDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK =====
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY,
AND WILL DRIVE A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE
REMAINS SOME DISPLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW TRACK AND TIMING, BUT
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND AI/ML PROBS INDICATE A CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT, BUT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS
FAVORED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE TAF SITES ARE QUIET AND VFR AT THIS HOUR, AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE WATCHING AN UPSTREAM COMPLEX OF
STORMS MOVING TOWARD HNB/SDF/LEX THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN STORMS WILL ARRIVE DUE TO ITS SLOW
PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD. WHEN STORMS DO ARRIVE EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VIS TO MFR OR BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND TSRA. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE AROUND 40-50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER DO STILL
EXPECT PLENTY OF SURFACE GUSTS, SO WILL BE CONSERVATIVE ON LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MENTION. SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND MAY CLEAR OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES BY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SW AND THEN W AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH TOMORROW. SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ025-029>043-049.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...BJS
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