453
FXUS63 KLMK 181816
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
216 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GUSTIER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
* A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 AM EDT TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-64.
* THE COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION, LEADING TO ADDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* A REPRIEVE FROM RAINFALL COMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNS STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
A TRAINING BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS RESIDED OVER
CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATION/STORM MOVEMENT.
THIS IS CURRENTLY OUR BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF TO THE WEST. PER THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS, AMPLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE, WITH PW VALUES
NEARING 2.00". SCATTERED/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 80S, WITH
MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING ABOVE 1500 J/KG. NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE TRAINING BAND AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS AND
HAIL. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEING FUNNELED IN FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR, THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE OVER THIS AREA ONCE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. LPMM FROM THE
12Z HREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PLACE SWATHS OF HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY, SO FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR
ANY LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS OR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE WISCONSIN AND
ILLINOIS BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHED SW THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THAT WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH SLIGHTLY
AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH SE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES CAN EXPECT
STORMS TO START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 12 AND 2 AM EDT, AND CONTINUE TO
MOVE SE INTO NORTHERN KY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND, HAIL, AND EVEN A FEW
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS IN SOUTHERN IN AND
NORTHERN KY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD ON TO 1500 - 2000 J/KG WITH THE CAPPING EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM 40-50 KTS AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOWER LEVEL
INHIBITION HOLDS ON AND DECREASES THE SEVERE THREAT TO THE AREA BY
PREVENTING ANY ADDITIONAL GROWTH. PWAT VALUES ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING
AROUND 2" AND ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY. AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH
THIS LEADS TO A FLASH FLOODING CONCERN, ESPECIALLY WITH TRAINING
STORMS. QPF VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE 1" TO 2" THROUGHOUT THE AREA,
WITH SOME LOCALIZED VALUES OF 3" POSSIBLE WITH LONGER RESIDENCE
TIMES. A FLOOD WATCH IS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF KY AS THE COLD FRONT
SLOWS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS AMPLE MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION FLOODING WILL BE AN AREA OF CONCERN, ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. A SECONDARY FLOOD WATCH FOR TOMORROW IS LIKELY FOR AREAS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KY. THE OVERALL SHEAR PROFILE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW, DECEASING THE THREAT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS LINE
OF STORMS THAT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
KY FRIDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME DOMINANT KEEPING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW 80S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S, LEADING
TO A VERY NICE FRIDAY. SATURDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A RINSE AND REPEAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
DRY WEATHER COMES TO AN END FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ESE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO
MONDAY. SEVERE THREATS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, BUT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE MARGINAL WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES REMAINING ELEVATED. PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5" WILL
QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS
ESTIMATING QPF NEAR 1.5" BY MONDAY NIGHT, THEREFORE CONTINUED
MONITORING WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING, WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER, CHANCES REMAIN LOW AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR STAYS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BWG AND RGA, WITH
SDF AND HNB REMAINING DRY. LEX WAS GIVEN A PROB30 FOR -TSRA SINCE
THEY ARE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT VFR LEVELS, THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
COULD OCCUR WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT HAS
BEGUN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, WITH HNB CURRENTLY ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST. ONCE SHOWERS AND STORMS
END THIS EVENING, THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE CALM WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR KYZ023-024-
026>028-045>048-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...CAL
AVIATION...BEN
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