502
FXUS63 KLMK 190506
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
106 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* A REPRIEVE FROM RAINFALL COMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNS SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
* AN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OFF AND ON SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 859 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THIS HOUR.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, GIVEN THAT PRECIP HAS
EXITED THE REGION. GIVEN THE EARLY DEPARTURE OF SHOWERS AND THE
DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE AT PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, A
MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IS IN STORE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG-TO-SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. IN ADDITION, THE CONTINUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE AREA SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN A BAND OF
TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS SITUATED ITSELF OVER
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. TO ITS SOUTH, RICH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR HAS RAISED PWS TO OVER 2" IN SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG IN PLACE, THERE HAS BEEN
MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRAINING BAND. 12Z LPMM FROM HREF
GUIDANCE HAS HIGHLIGHTED A FEW SWATHS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY, SO PLACES THAT EXPERIENCE
DOWNPOURS AND/OR TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS EITHER FROM THE NEW
DEVELOPMENT OR ONGOING TRAINING BAND WOULD HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING. NEW RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3"+ ALSO
POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NE CONUS IS
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING OFF TO OUR
SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, USHERING IN A PERIOD OF CALM WEATHER TO END THE
WORKWEEK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY, HELPING LIMIT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S WILL ALSO MAKE FOR RATHER COMFORTABLE OUTDOOR
CONDITIONS AS WE GET TO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY NIGHT...
MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL KEEP US DRY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER TO THE LOW AND MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NE CWA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. MOST THE AREA STAYS
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY - MONDAY NIGHT...
SUNDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY WITH A BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRAVERSING
THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE MID 80S. AS WE
MOVE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD PASS SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES OR WABASH RIVER VALLEY REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BEFORE WANING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, 0-6 KM DEEP LAYER
SHEAR BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
A POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
THE BEST OVERLAP OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR INSTABILITY WOULD BE IN OUR NW
CWA CLOSER TO THE BEST FORCING, AND ANYWHERE ALONG AND WEST OF I-65
WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE. COULD SEE AN EVENTUAL NEED FOR A
LOWER END THREAT FROM SPC SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE SUNDAY EVENING
SHOULD CURRENT DATA FOR THAT TIME PERIOD MATERIALIZE.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MAY STALL OUT ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES POTENTIALLY EJECTING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THIS COULD LEAD TO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND MAY HAVE
TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERNS IF WE GET REPEATED ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE GOING INTO MID WEEK ACROSS THE AREA AS BAGGY
TROUGHINESS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY TRAVERSE THROUGH THIS FLOW NEAR OR
OVER OUR REGION, AND COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. NOTHING TO BE TOO CONFIDENT IN FOR ANY SPECIFIC TIME FRAME,
BUT MAY HAVE TO END UP CARRYING SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES OFF
AND ON THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL AND MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
DRIER WEATHER HAS RETURNED NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT AS SWEPT THROUGH
THE AREA. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL BE PATCHY
DENSE FOG, BUT CURRENTLY BELIEVE IT WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE NW.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...CJP
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