863
FXUS63 KLMK 190722
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A REPRIEVE FROM RAINFALL COMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNS SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
* A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OFF AND ON SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MUCH QUIETER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO, AND THAT IS BECAUSE THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PASSED ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE IN A DRIER POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
NOW, BUT STILL SEEING SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING. OUR GROUNDS ARE STILL WELL SATURATED AFTER THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND WITH SFC WINDS NEARLY CALM, AND SKYCOVER GRADUALLY
CLEARING, THESE FACTORS ALL SUPPORT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING
THIS MORNING.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKYCOVER AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S, WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S. THOSE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY MAKE FOR A REALLY NICE
DAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH MOSTLY LOW TO MID 80S, BUT
SHOULD STILL BE RATHER NICE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOME
CAMS PICK UP ON SOME VERY LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS IN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, DRIVEN BY A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND WEAK
VORTICITY. OUR PROFILE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRY, SO KEPT A DRY FORECAST
GOING, BUT MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES MAY SNEAK INTO COUNTIES NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT
LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
RETURNING RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN IN AND THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN KY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME HEALTHILY DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65
AS THERE IS A 45-50% CHANCE OF PWATS GREATER THAN 2". ADDITIONALLY,
1000 - 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE MAY BE PRESENT ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES 30-40 KTS. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT, LEADING TO
POSSIBLE SEVERE THREATS. THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
STRONGEST STORMS WOULD BE WEST OF I-65 AS THIS IS WHERE ALL
INGREDIENTS OVERLAP WELL. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOK
FOR DAY 3 COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
ONCE THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE, WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TO
MOVE OVER. AS SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREAS, MONITORING WILL NEED TO CONTINUE FOR A POTENTIAL HYDRO
CONCERN. AREAS WITHIN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE CLOSE TO 3" OF RAIN OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY
A BROAD TROUGHING THROUGH THE NORTH PART OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE EAST
AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE CAN BE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND BRIEF.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY START TO WARM THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE MID 80S. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP IS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
DRIER WEATHER HAS RETURNED NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT AS SWEPT THROUGH
THE AREA. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL BE PATCHY
DENSE FOG, BUT CURRENTLY BELIEVE IT WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE NW.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CAL
AVIATION...CJP
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