245
FXUS63 KLMK 201050
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
650 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
* STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE SUNDAY EVENING. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS COULD BE IN PLAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 AND NORTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAYS.
* A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OFF AND ON SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON (10-15%) AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN IN.
CHANCES REMAIN LOW BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR HOLDING ON IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, THEREFORE A VIRGA SCENARIO COULD BE PRESENT. SKIES WILL
PARTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH SCATTERED HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
INTO THE NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE DAY TO START OFF DRY. A SUBSTANTIAL
MCS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MISSOURI. DURING THE DAY, THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST AND THE MCS ACROSS MISSOURI WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO IL/IN.
WE'LL START OFF THE DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES, BUT WE'LL SEE CLOUDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE THE CLOUDS, WE SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 83-88 DEGREE RANGE FOR HIGHS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER MO WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN A BIT MORE
CONVERGENCE HERE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AS THE GFS/EURO ARE
SIMILAR IN OVERALL STRENGTH. MODELS SHOW AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
SURGING INTO THE 1300-1700 J/KG RANGE DURING THE PEAK OF THE
AFTERNOON, BUT QUICKLY DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET.
CAM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF SPREAD AS WE MOVE INTO
THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE PERIOD. THE OVERALL THEME HERE IS THAT THE
ONGOING MCS OVER MO WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO IL/WKY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE SHOW AN OVERLAP OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES WITH THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
OUR REGION. THE BEST OVERLAP OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE
ACROSS WESTERN KY/SOUTHERN IL AND INTO SW IN AND FAR NORTHERN KY.
CURRENT SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK SLIGHTLY EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK
EASTWARD TO OUR BORDER WITH PAH. THE FORECAST HERE IS CONSERVATIVE
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY
TO WANE AFTER SUNSET WITH ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. LOCAL THINKING HERE IS THAT
THE SLIGHT RISK PROBABLY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED A BIT EAST-
NORTHEAST WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS INTO OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KY (NORTH OF A HARTFORD/FORT KNOX/LEXINGTON
LINE).
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR WIND
AND A LOW END TORNADO THREAT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR, WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED BACKED WINDS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 250-350 M2/S2 OF ESRH
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA, SO A MIX OF MULTI-CELLULAR AND PERHAPS
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS IS POSSIBLE. I SAY LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS HERE
BECAUSE LAPSE RATES IN THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE LOOK PRETTY POOR ABOVE
500 MB, THOUGH LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, MOST MODELS SHOW THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER, WE
SHOULD HAVE REMAINING ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO HAVE STORMS CONTINUE
EASTWARD INTO THE NIGHT.
THE LEAD WAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND STALL OUT ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHERN KY OR INTO
NORTHERN TN. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WITHIN THE MEAN
FLOW WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AND THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HYDRO PROBLEMS THAT MAY DEVELOP IF TRAINING CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.
RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAS BEEN QUITE IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS KY AND HAS LED TO SATURATED SOILS WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR
FLOOD THREAT. GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION, HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EXPECTED. WITH THE FRONT
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PUSHING
EAST, WE SHOULD SEE DRIER CONDITIONS BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS INT
HE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WE'LL SEE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD SWAY IN THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS A RETURN OF
DRIER WEATHER BY FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SEEN HERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING IN THE LOW 60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES WILL
START TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING SCT250. WINDS WILL BEGIN
VEERING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO EAST.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME CALM ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TAFS REMAIN
DRY HOWEVER THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (10-15%) OF A LIGHT SHOWER
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR HOLDING AT THE SURFACE MAY EVEN LEAD TO A
VIRGA SCENARIO INSTEAD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CAL
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