834
FXUS63 KLMK 210729
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
329 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAYS.
* HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A FLOOD RISK FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHERN INDIANA. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
* A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OFF AND ON SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOTED FROM DUBOIS
COUNTY INDIANA OVER TOWARD THE LEXINGTON METRO AREA. SKIES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WERE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW WEAK RETURNS
SHOWING UP. ACROSS SOUTHERN KY, SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, THIS WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
IN AND OVER INTO THE NORTHERN BLUEGRASS REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S. A FEW OF OUR VALLEY AREAS COULD DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50S.
AFTER SUNRISE, WE'LL SEE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WE'LL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL LEAD TO WINDS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL STREAM EASTWARD AND SOME AREAS
COULD GO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE 82-87 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN
HALF OF KENTUCKY. ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY, HIGHS OF 84-89 ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WARM
LAYER UP AROUND 700 MB WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CAPPING TO KEEP
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS WOULD
REALLY BE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT, WE'LL BE WATCHING THE REMNANT MCV PUSHING THROUGH
EASTERN KS EARLY THIS MORNING AS ROLLS THROUGH MO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO IL/IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MCV WILL BE AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS MO/IL/IN AND INTO OH. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND IT'S
IMPACTS ON THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE. THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
FOR TONIGHT ALSO REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN WITH SEVERAL SCENARIOS THAT
COULD PLAY OUT.
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A CLUSTER OF
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV WILL MOVE ACROSS IL
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SW/CENTRAL IN THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
HERE WOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF MULIT-CELLULAR AND SUPERCELLULAR
CONVECTION WITH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT. OVERALL HIGHEST
TORNADO THREAT LOCALLY WOULD BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES.
DESPITE GOOD LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES ON THE SOUNDINGS, LCL'S ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH AND THE OVERALL INSTABILITY PROFILE REMAINS
RATHER MARGINAL. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST IN/NORTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN OH LATER THIS EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THAT MCV, THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY OF THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION REMAINS IN WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE CAMS DEVELOP A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND DRIVE IT EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LMK CWA
WITH A CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL CAM
SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
OVER SOUTHERN MO AND THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST/WESTERN KY LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN INTO NORTHWEST TN, WHICH COULD LEAVE A RELATIVE GAP
IN COVERAGE...OR AT LEAST A RELATIVE MIN IN COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KY. LOOKING AT THE 21/00Z HREF GUIDANCE, WE CAN SEE THAT
THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST IN/FAR WESTERN KY
THIS EVENING (GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-165 CORRIDOR), BUT THEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DROPS OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE
HREF SOLUTIONS REALLY DO NOT HAVE MUCH INSTABILITY LATE THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT INTO AREAS EAST OF I-65. THUS, ANY LINEAR
CONVECTION PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION WILL LIKELY WEAKEN WITH TIME
AND EASTERN EXTENT.
SPC HAS OPTED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY TWO OUTLOOK. THIS IS A
REASONABLE APPROACH AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OUTLOOK WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR LATER TODAY AS THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BEGINS TO REVEAL
ITSELF.
IN TERMS OF QPF/HYDRO ISSUES, INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT WILL BE
QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE HIGHEST QPF LOOKS TO OCCUR
FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN WITH 00Z HREF PMM GUIDANCE SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 3-4 INCH SWATHS OCCURRING WITH THE MCV
PUSHING THROUGH. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION,
HAVE COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO HOIST A FLOOD WATCH
FOR OUR SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AS THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BECOME MORE CLEAR, ADDITIONAL EXPANSIONS TO
THIS WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KY (MAINLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE PARKWAYS) WHERE SOILS REMAIN SATURATED FROM THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS WORTH OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE WITH THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, AND CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
IN DRIER AIR. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY, AND WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY LEADING TO ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
AMOUNTS UNDER 0.25", AND ONLY 5-15% PROBABILITY OF 0.5" ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND WILL LEAD TO A BROADER TROUGHING AREA OVER THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FRIDAY EVENING A LLJ WILL ALSO MOVE IN BRINGING WIND GUSTS
RANGING NEAR 30MPH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY, AND HOPEFULLY CLEAR FOR A DRY SUNDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A 40-50%
CHANCE OF RECEIVING GREATER THAT 0.5". MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO END
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WE'LL SEE SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS
EARLY THIS MORNING THAT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST WHILE WIND REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS, WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
MORNING BUT THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHILE INCREASING TO 8-10KTS. SUNDAY EVENING WILL FEATURE A LINE OF
STORMS MOVING IN. STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE CAM GUIDANCE
HERE SO WILL HOLD OFF MAKING CONVECTIVE FORECASTS UNTIL THE 21/12Z
ISSUANCE. STORMS COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....CAL
AVIATION.....MJ
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